On Sunday, the Dolphins will travel to Seattle for the first time since 2016 to take on the Seahawks. Tua Tagovailoa was officially placed on IR, so he'll be out for at least four weeks and likely more. This means that Skylar Thompson will take the reins as quarterback and look to steady the ship for the next few weeks. Tyler Huntley was signed from the Ravens practice squad, but Mike McDaniel has stated that this is purely as backup to Thompson.
The Seahawks parted ways with legendary coach Pete Carroll after 14 seasons in January, replacing him with the highly rated Ravens defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald. Seattle has started the season 2-0, admittedly not having faced the most formidable opponents in Denver and New England. Still, they look to continue their winning streak against an undermanned Dolphins team. With the 49ers and Rams banged up, Seattle could look to make a surprise run at the division title. Will the Seahawks be able to keep up their hot start, or will Skylar Thompson and company foil their plans?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 22
Start Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Location: Seattle, Washington
Stadium: Lumen Field
TV Info: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: White Jersey, Blue Pants
Seattle Seahawks Stats (From 2023)
Points Per Game: 21.4 (17th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.6 (24th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 322.9 (22nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 230 Yards Per Game (15th) and 92.9 Yards Per Game (27th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 371.4 (30th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 233 Yards Per Game (22nd) and 138.4 Yards Per Game (31st)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 36.23% (23rd) and 46.32% (31st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 48.15% (26th) and 60.71% (24th)
Penalties: 111 (5th)
Penalty Yardage: 954 Yards (2nd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (IR), WR Grant DuBose, RB Raheem Mostert (Doubtful), WR Malik Washington (Doubtful)
Seahawks: LB Uchenna Nwosu, RB Kenneth Walker III (Doubtful), T George Fant (Doubtful), LB Jerome Baker (Doubtful)
Seattle Seahawks
Defense
If you look at Seattle's defense rankings from last year, most of them were pretty atrocious. The fact that they had to play the Rams and 49ers twice didn't help, but they were in the bottom third by most metrics. Mike Macdonald and new defensive coordinator Aden Durde will aim to improve the defense, and so far, Seattle has given up 20 points in each of their first two games.
Neither New England nor Denver has anywhere near the firepower the Dolphins do, so this game will be a slightly better way to gauge if the defense really has improved, even without Tua playing. First-round pick Byron Murphy from Texas was drafted to help bolster the defensive line alongside the dangerous Leonard Williams, who is coming off a 1.5-sack game against the Patriots.
Ever since the "Legion of Boom" days with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, etc, Seattle has prided itself on having a solid secondary. While their secondary did not rank highly last season, significant changes were made in the off-season. Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams were released, and Rayshawn Jenkins was brought in to pair Julian Love at safety. Riq Woolen remains their top corner, and he started the season strongly by getting an interception off Bo Nix in week one.
With Thompson as the quarterback, I suspect the defense will focus more on stopping De'Von Achane than the Dolphins receivers. This could end up being a gamble since Tyreek Hill, especially, can break open any game with one play, but that will all depend on how much Seattle respects Thompson's throwing ability.
Offense
From a talent perspective, Seattle has one of the best offenses in the NFL. DK Metcalf might be the best athlete in a league full of physical specimens at the wide receiver position. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is now in his second season and will look to establish himself as the WR2 behind Metcalf if he hasn't already. Metcalf and JSN are coming off 129 and 117-yard performances, respectively, and I expect their heavy target share to continue.
JSN had a colossal 16 targets last week, and there are signs that he's turning into the player many expected he would be coming out of Ohio State. The Seahawks' new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, ran an extremely pass-heavy offense at the University of Washington, and this style will allow JSN and Metcalf to flourish, just as they did last week.
Not to be forgotten is the Seahawks' rushing attack. Kenneth Walker III is one of my favorite backs in the league, and he made the backfield his own in 2022. Unfortunately, Walker has struggled with injuries throughout his career, and that hasn't changed this season, as he is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game. Instead, Zach Charbonnet will be the lead back after taking 100% of the backfield touches last week in Walker's absence. Charbonnet doesn't have Walker's explosiveness but is arguably the better pass catcher.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
Miami's defense was put in a tough spot against Buffalo, as the offense's turnovers led to the Bills having short fields. They still gave up three touchdowns to James Cook, which is far from ideal. The defensive line failed to reach Josh Allen and did not sack him once. They'll be more optimistic against a Seahawks' O-Line that gave up three sacks last week.
The defense's aim should be to stop Seattle's passing attack. The Dolphins are solid on the outside, with Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, but the problems in the secondary come after that. Kader Kohou, the nickelback, has the worst coverage grade among all corners this season on PFF. This will play into Seattle's hands as they use JSN in the slot, who will be going up against Kohou for most of the game.
Miami has run man coverage at the 8th-highest rate this season, but I expect them to run a bit more zone to mix it up against the Seahawks' dynamic receivers. The good news is that bar Bradley Chubb, the defense is fully healthy, and they'll know they will have to step up to put less pressure on the offense in Tua's absence.
Offense
Every Dolphins fan will want to know how this offense will look without Tua. Skylar Thompson replaced Tua in the 2022 season, and he nearly led the Dolphins to a win against the Bills in Buffalo during the playoffs but narrowly lost 34-31. However, Thompson's counting stats were relatively poor in that game, with 18/45 220 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
Mike McDaniel insists that he and the team trust Thompson, but how they respond on the field remains to be seen. The Dolphins will probably shift to a more run-heavy offense, giving Achane a hefty amount of touches. Raheem Mostert will likely be sidelined again, so Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright will provide backup to Achane. Achane is coming off a great game against the Bills, and he can hurt the defense in various ways.
McDaniel is known to throw a few curveballs so that he may maintain a similar system and scheme. It'll be an opportunity to see if Tua benefits from McDaniel's scheme or if it's the other way around. If they can pull it off, a win in Seattle would be a statement for Thompson and the Dolphins.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SEA -4.5 (-110) | MIA +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SEA (-215) | MIA (+180)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-105) | U 42.5 (-115)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, September 20
This line opened at -6 and even went as high as -6.5 but slowly shifted throughout the week. I'm taking Seattle -4.5. Lumen Field is a hostile environment for any team, let alone a team with an inexperienced quarterback and injuries all over the offensive line. Frankly, I'm surprised the line hasn't shifted back closer to -6. Prop-wise, I like JSN to have over 48.5 receiving yards.
Prediction
It's just too hard to predict how good the Dolphins will be with Thompson. Maybe McDaniel can pull off some magic, but I can't see a Dolphins win here. Seattle may not be one of the top teams in the league, but they have playmakers on both sides of the ball and what looks to be a top coach. I think they get the win here.
Final Score: Seahawks 27, Dolphins 17
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