With a quarter of the season to go, the odds aren't in their favor, but the Dolphins aren't out of the playoff race just yet. A loss here, however, would effectively take them out of the hunt. A game back in Miami is just what the Dolphins need after playing in Green Bay and getting a few extra days of rest.
The Jets came into the season with their highest expectations in nearly a decade. After Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the second play of the season last year, they remained competitive with Zach Wilson for most of the season. Things have gone wrong, and the Jets are 1-8 in their previous nine games.
Divisional games can get dicey, and there are lots of Jets fans in Miami, but it's a must-win for the Dolphins, all things considered. Can the Dolphins continue their playoff push, or will Aaron Rodgers and the Jets spoil the party?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 8th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
New York Jets 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 18.8 (26th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.3 (15th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 291.3 (31st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 204.0 Yards Per Game (23rd) and 87.3 Yards Per Game (29th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 301.2 (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 174.9 Yards Per Game (2nd) and 126.3 Yards Per Game (20th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 39.61% (12th) and 37.42% (15th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 54.05% (18th) and 59.52% (20th)
Penalties: 89 (4th)
Penalty Yardage: 772 Yards (2nd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins:
Jets: LB C.J. Mosley, RB Breece Hall (Doubtful), CB Sauce Gardner (Doubtful)
New York Jets
Defense
The Jets' defense has been a far cry from last season. The difference isn't huge numbers-wise, but it's noticeable when watching them. The body language and effort are poor. To make matters worse, Sauce Gardner is listed as doubtful and is unlikely to suit up for this game due to a hamstring injury.
Gardner was unanimously viewed as one of the top two corners in the NFL coming into the season, but things haven't gone as well for him this term. His tackling has been exposed, and he's had his fair share of embarrassing moments. It hasn't only been him, though; while the Jets rank second in passing yards allowed, they've only managed two(!) interceptions all season, which is second worst in the league.
The best part of the Jets defense has been their pass-rush. Their 37 sacks rank fifth in the NFL, and second-year man Will McDonald IV has ten of those on his own. They'll make a point to get pressure on Tua, especially with the Dolphins' struggling offensive line. Tua has been on fire when playing at home, so losing Gardner is a big blow to the defense, especially considering they haven't been good at stopping the run, so both sides suffer.
Offense
The Jets' offense has undergone a few changes this season. It started relatively run-heavy, with Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen heavily involved. In October, they demoted OC Nathaniel Hackett and traded for Aaron Rodgers' best buddy, Davante Adams, hoping things would improve. They did, slightly, but Rodgers, while still a good NFL quarterback, isn't at the level he was a couple of seasons ago.
Breece Hall is listed as doubtful and looks set to miss a game for the first time this season. This means that Braelon Allen will shoulder the bulk of the work in the backfield. Allen is a massive running back; he's listed at 6'1", 235 pounds, but he looks even bigger than that on TV. He's only 20 and played his college ball at Wisconsin, a school known for producing running backs. I expect him to give the Dolphins some trouble on Sunday.
Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are a phenomenal 1-2 punch at receiver, but except for one game against Houston, it seems like only one of them can have a good game at a time in this offense. That's unlikely to change against a Dolphins pass defense with Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller back from concussion protocol.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins' defense played a poor game against Green Bay. They couldn't stop the Packers' offense, and by the time they did, the game was too far out of reach. One massive point in that game is that they failed to produce any turnovers. The Jets average about one giveaway per game, so capitalizing on that could be a massive part of the game.
Bradley Chubb returned to practice this week for the first time all season, but is listed as questionable. It'll be interesting to see if he can return to his usual level after an ACL tear has kept him out for nearly a year. If Chubb cannot go, Chop Robinson will pick up the slack, as he has for the past two months. Aaron Rodgers is less mobile than he once was, having turned 41 this week, and the Dolphins should take advantage by sending the heat.
Offense
The offense looked excellent in the second half against the Packers and has been especially good at home this season. Since Tua's return, they scored at least 27 points in every home game. I expect a similar tally in this game. The Jets' defense is banged up and doesn't strike the same fear into offenses as last season.
One thing the Dolphins have to do is run the ball more. Yes, they faced a negative game script in Green Bay, but only 12 carries for the running backs isn't enough. De'Von Achane had eight receptions on nine targets against the Packers but only seven carries. Get him more carries against a Jets' run defense that has struggled against many top backs this season.
Jonnu Smith should be able to continue his blazing hot streak. He has at least 87 yards in the last three games, including three touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill will also have more joy on the outside, with Gardner likely sidelined.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NYJ +5.5 (-110) | MIA -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NYJ (+200) | MIA (-245)
Over/Under: O 44.5 (-110) | U 44.5 (-110)
Lines via FanDuel as of Friday, December 6th
The books have liked the Jets all year. They have been favored in nine of 12 games this season despite being 3-9, both in overall record and ATS. Variance would favor a Jets cover here. They've only covered once since Week 3, so they're due... but I don't care. I have no faith in this injured Jets team, and they are only playing for pride at this point. Give me Dolphins -5.5.
Prediction
The Dolphins need this victory; they have played well at home and are relatively healthy. Aaron Rodgers can turn back the clock any given week, but the Dolphins should get it done.
Final Score: Dolphins 27, Jets 16
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