The Dolphins close the season with three of the last four on the road, starting Sunday in Houston. The Dolphins kept their season alive with an overtime win against the Jets last week, but they'll have to step up their game to beat the Texans.
The Texans sit atop the AFC South by two games over the Colts, who face a crucial matchup against the Broncos. A win would effectively wrap up the division for the Texans, but they'll still be fighting for seeding. They came into the season with very high expectations, and despite being 8-5, the general consensus is that they've slightly underperformed.
The Texans still have to face the Ravens and Chiefs in the next two weeks, so a home win against the Dolphins would provide some security. The Dolphins, meanwhile, can, at worst, lose one more game for the rest of the season if they're to make the playoffs. Will C.J. Stroud secure a second consecutive division title, or will Tua and the Dolphins make things tricky?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 15th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Houston, Texas
Stadium: NRG Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: White Top, Blue Pants
Houston Texans 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 23.7 (11th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.2 (12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 335.2 (18th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 221.2 Yards Per Game (17th) and 114.1 Yards Per Game (16th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 308.5 (5th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 198.8 Yards Per Game (7th) and 109.7 Yards Per Game (10th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.08% (21st) and 34.71% (6th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 53.33% (21st) and 65.63% (28th)
Penalties: 95 (7th)
Penalty Yardage: 770 Yards (5th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: WR Dee Eskridge, LT Terron Armstead (Doubtful)
Texans: C Juice Scruggs
Houston Texans
Defense
DeMeco Ryans, the Texans' head coach, made a name for himself in the coaching scene as the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. He signed with the Texans to be the head coach last season and was a finalist for Coach of the Year. Under his leadership, the Texans' defense has been stout.
They rank in the top 12 for most metrics, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game. They also rank second in total sacks, led by Danielle Hunter with 10.5 and Will Anderson Jr. with 9.5. The pass rush will be crucial in a game against the Dolphins, who gave up zero sacks last week but will be without Terron Armstead.
The Texans rank fifth with 24 takeaways and second in interceptions with 16. That will be another essential point against the Dolphins, who have cared for the ball well. Tua only has two turnovers since his return in Week 8. The Texans have been excellent against the run, and the Dolphins have seriously struggled to run the ball lately, so the focus will shift more to the passing game.
Offense
Last season, C.J. Stroud enjoyed one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory. He threw 23 touchdowns to only five interceptions and even won a playoff game. This season, he's going through a sophomore slump. He's thrown only 15 touchdowns in 13 games and is 23rd in the NFL in QBR. Star receiver Nico Collins missed five games with a hamstring injury. Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8, but Stroud struggled before that.
Speaking of Collins, he's blossomed into one of the NFL's best receivers. He leads the NFL in yards per game with 104 and is especially lethal at home. At home, he averages 114 yards, including a game he left in the second quarter with an injury. Tank Dell is the second receiver behind Collins but has struggled to hit the heights he reached last season.
The most significant change in this Texans offense has come in the running game. Joe Mixon has been an absolute workhorse; he's one of only two running backs averaging over 20 carries per game and has 11 touchdowns in 10 games. They'll lean heavily on him, especially if the game is close.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
Aaron Rodgers gave the Dolphins defense a tough time last week. The Jets had 402 yards of total offense and put 26 points on the board. However, they stood firm when it mattered most and only gave up three points in the fourth quarter. As was Jordyn Brooks, Zach Sieler was a standout, with four tackles and two sacks.
The aim will be to stop Mixon, who has been excellent this season but has had some challenging games when the defense sets up to stop him. In fact, he only has 68 yards on 39 carries in his last two home games. Sieler will play a significant role in trying to stop him while also getting after C.J. Stroud.
Jalen Ramsey and the secondary will have their hands full trying to limit Nico Collins, and they struggled against Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams last week. Kendall Fuller returned last week and immediately played 99% of the snaps, and I suspect he'll play a similar role this week.
Offense
The biggest news for the offense is Tyreek Hill's reemergence. He had his best game of the season against the Jets last week, with 115 yards on ten receptions and a touchdown. If he's fully healthy and playing well, this offense will be much harder to stop. Also, the Dolphins waived Odell Beckham Jr., but he did not have a game with more than 17 yards in the entire season.
Jonnu Smith didn't have a catch in regulation but was crucial in overtime last week, and I imagine he'd be more involved this week. It'll be vital for the Dolphins to attack the middle of the field, with Derek Stingley Jr. defending the outside for the Texans. Winning the turnover battle is key to any game, but it will be essential in this game.
De'Von Achane hasn't got it going on the ground, but Raheem Mostert's return may divert some attention away from him. It's worth noting that the Texans are coming off a bye week, so their defense will be well-rested. The bulk of the offense will come through the air again, but the running backs are due for a big game.
Betting Info
Points Spread: HOU -3 (-110) | MIA +3 (-110)
Moneyline: HOU (-150) | MIA (+125)
Over/Under: O 46.5 (-110) | U 46.5 (-110)
Lines via FanDuel as of Friday, December 13th
Neither team has been good against the spread this year, and with the line closing at -6 last week, the Dolphins actually did not cover. This should be a good game, and despite the Dolphins struggling against teams over .500, I'm going to pick them +3 here. Additionally, Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in every home game this season, and +120 for him to score is a nice bet.
Prediction
It's not clear-cut at all, but I think the Dolphins pull off the upset. The Texans simply haven't been that impressive, especially lately. Even though it's in Houston, it's a solid opportunity for the Dolphins to break their duck against good teams.
Final Score: Dolphins 27, Texans 24
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