After 18 grueling weeks, we've reached the end of the regular season. With this being one of the most top-heavy NFL seasons in recent memory, most of the playoff seeds are secured, but a few teams are still fighting. The Dolphins are one of those teams, and they need a win plus some help from the Chiefs, who are resting their starters.
The Jets' season has gone worse than anybody could have imagined. They sit at 4-12, and off the field, they fired their GM and head coach. It's also likely to be Aaron Rodgers' last game for the Jets and possibly the last game of his career full stop.
The Jets' season has been over for weeks, but killing off the Dolphins' playoff hopes would undoubtedly give them some joy. Will the Dolphins head into the late slate in playoffs, or will Aaron Rodgers end the season strongly?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Start Time: 4:25 PM EDT
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Stadium: MetLife Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Joe Davis, Greg Olsen on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
New York Jets 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 19.1 (24th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.9 (16th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 306.3 (24th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 216.1 Yards Per Game (17th) and 90.2 Yards Per Game (31st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 312.5 (5th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 192.3 Yards Per Game (5th) and 120.3 Yards Per Game (15th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 39.39% (15th) and 39.41% (17th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 52.00% (25th) and 60.34% (19th)
Penalties: 123 (1st)
Penalty Yardage: 1,030 Yards (1st)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: LB Anthony Walker Jr., QB Tua Tagovailoa (Doubtful)
Jets: CB Sauce Gardner, DL Leki Fotu (Doubtful)
New York Jets
Defense
The Jets' defense has fallen off a cliff. They were embarrassed by Buffalo last week, allowing 40 points, and the Dolphins scored 32 the last time they played each other. Sauce Gardner is also missing this game with a hamstring injury. The Jets aren't playing for anything, and hamstring injuries are tricky, so resting him is wise.
The team's morale seems so low, especially on defense. The effort isn't there, and neither is the discipline. The Jets have the most penalty yardage in the league. They'll have to shift their focus, as Tyler Huntley will play quarterback for the Dolphins.
They should study the tape from the Browns' game to see what worked for Huntley. The main focus will be keeping him in the pocket and containing Tyreek Hill.
Offense
As I mentioned earlier, there's a good chance this is Aaron Rodgers' last game. His relationship with the organization looks irreparable, and I don't think many teams would take him and his off-field drama. For the most part, he hasn't played that poorly, but he's clearly not the Aaron Rodgers of old.
Breece Hall was sidelined the last time these two teams played, so Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis split the backfield work. Hall is active this time, but he's had a disappointing season. He will fail to hit 1,000 rushing yards, and his receiving work has been inconsistent. It doesn't help that the Jets seem to refuse to run the ball in the red zone.
Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson torched the Dolphins' secondary in Week 14 and will look to do so again. Adams will also want to catch Aaron Rodgers' 500th touchdown pass, just as he caught his 200th and 400th.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins defense only allowed three points and caused two turnovers last week, but that was against the Browns. The Jets will surely score more than three points but often turn the ball over. The Dolphins will need that to put Tyler Huntley into good field position.
Chop Robinson, Zach Sieler, and the rest of the pass rush should get after Aaron Rodgers and exploit his lack of mobility. I'd focus on defending Adams and Wilson since the Jets' running game is an afterthought. I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers throws 40+ passes, and Jalen Ramsey will be ready.
Offense
Last week was, by far, Tyler Huntley's best game as a Dolphin. He only misplaced four passes and even ran in a touchdown himself. He established a nice connection with Tyreek Hill, too. Jaylen Waddle missed last week, but there's a better chance he plays this week.
The Dolphins aren't taking any chances with Tua, but he did say that if the Dolphins made the playoffs, there would be no doubt about his status for next week. It's worth noting that the weather will be in the 30s at kickoff, and the wind chill will make it feel closer to 20. The Dolphins historically struggle in such conditions, but in most games they've lost, they also came against above .500 teams.
Get Achane involved early and target Jonnu Smith down the middle. Use Tyler Huntley's athleticism to switch things up. That's what the Dolphins should do in this game. Use last week's victory against Cleveland as a blueprint.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NYJ -1.5 (-110) | MIA +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NYJ (-118) | MIA (-102)
Over/Under: O 38.5 (-110) | U 38.5 (-110)
Lines via FanDuel as of Friday, January 3rd
The Jets are tied as the third-worst team ATS, with a 5-11 record. The Dolphins are slightly better at 7-9. As good as Tyler Huntley was last week, I have my doubts that he can do it again. The Jets are also at home, and Rodgers may want to go out with a bang. I'll go with the Jets -1.5.
Prediction
The Dolphins have more or less accepted their fate by not letting Tua play. Even if they win and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs' backups, they must travel to Buffalo next week. They'll still play to win, but I think they come up short this week.
Final Score: Jets 20, Dolphins 16
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