The Dolphins kept their season alive last week with a win against San Francisco. The odds for them to make the playoffs still aren't great, but they suddenly look much better than they did a few weeks ago. The Broncos lost an overtime thriller to Cincinnati, which was the first of many things the Dolphins needed to happen. The Colts are still heavy favorites to beat the Giants this week, but starting quarterback Anthony Richardson has been ruled out of that game with an injury.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins will also likely be without their starter, as Tua Tagovailoa was downgraded to doubtful with a hip injury. Tyler Huntley will start if Tua can't go, just as he did earlier in the season. It's the last thing the Dolphins needed with their season on the line, but they'll have to find a way without him.
Will the Dolphins continue to fight and prolong their season, or will the Browns end things prematurely?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Start Time: 4:05 PM EDT
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Stadium: Huntington Bank Field
TV Info: CBS (Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
Cleveland Browns 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 16.3 (31st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.3 (26th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 307.2 (25th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 211.3 Yards Per Game (18th) and 95.9 Yards Per Game (27th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 339.9 (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 212.5 Yards Per Game (16th) and 127.4 Yards Per Game (19th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 28.37% (32nd) and 36.18% (9th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 54.84% (19th) and 59.57% (19th)
Penalties: 99 (7th)
Penalty Yardage: 757 Yards (10th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: CB Kendall Fuller, LB Anthony Walker Jr., QB Tua Tagovailoa (Doubtful)
Browns: DE Ogbo Okoronkwo, TE David Njoku, WR Cedric Tillman
Cleveland Browns
Defense
Last season, the Browns had one of the best defenses in the NFL. They allowed the fewest yards in the league despite playing in a division with the Ravens and Bengals. This season, it hasn't been the same. The defense isn't terrible, but it's been on the receiving end of a few batterings. However, there's been one constant, and that's Myles Garrett.
The former first-overall pick won the Defensive Player of the Year award last season, and if his team had a better record, he'd been in the conversation again this season. Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew; he has a seemingly impossible combination of size, speed, and strength for a mere human being. Garrett has 12 sacks this season, and he's the last player any quarterback wants to see coming at them.
The Browns defense's game plan will completely change with Tua out. The secondary won't have to do nearly as much, and the Dolphins will play more through their running backs and short pass plays.
Offense
It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Browns at quarterback. They were the team that bit the bullet and paid Deshaun Watson after what he "allegedly" did, and it has not worked out for them. Watson has been dreadful when he's played, and to make matters worse, he tore his Achilles in Week 7.
Jameis Winston took over the offense and transformed it. Winston is a gunslinger; no throw scares him, but his decision-making is frustrating. The Browns decided they had enough of his turnovers and benched him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Sadly, for the Browns, DTR just isn't good enough to be a starter in the NFL; he has just one touchdown and nine interceptions in his career. He's mobile and can be a threat when he scrambles, but is limited as a passer.
As for their receivers, Jerry Jeudy is having the best season of his career; he's seventh in the NFL in receiving yards. However, nearly all those numbers came from Winston being at quarterback and throwing 40 pass attempts almost every game. The more significant threat on Sunday will be Jerome Ford on the ground, who's taken over the RB1 role after Nick Chubb broke his foot.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The defense held its ground against San Francisco. Holding them to 17 points and stopping them in the red zone three times was a big reason the Dolphins pulled out that victory. The Browns without Winston aren't a scary offense in the slightest, so the defense shouldn't be too troubled. The Browns haven't scored more than 14 points in three weeks.
The biggest challenge will be keeping DTR in the pocket, where the Dolphins know he won't be able to hurt them as badly. The conditions for this game are set to be pretty terrible. It will be in the 40s, with a 70% chance of rain, so expect both teams to run the ball a lot. It'll be up to Zach Sieler and Calais Campbell to do what they've done all season: stop the run and sack the quarterback. Jordyn Brooks will provide the cover behind them as he leads the linebackers.
Offense
Tua's downgrade to out is a bit of a surprise. He seemingly suffered this hip injury against the Texans but played through it last week against the 49ers. He also didn't entirely miss any practice this week. Perhaps the Dolphins see their chances of making the playoffs as a long shot and don't want to risk Tua's long-term health.
Regardless, Tyler Huntley will be the starter, pending a last-minute surprise. Huntley found a bit of a rhythm in his last start against the Colts but was forced to leave with an injury, and apart from that, he largely struggled as the starter. Luckily, he still has De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith in his offense. I suspect the Dolphins will keep things simple: lots of runs and few downfield throws.
The conditions will make things extremely difficult anyway, so it should be another heavy Achane game. The one difference in the play-calling will be a few designed runs for Huntley.
Betting Info
Points Spread: CLE +3.5 (-110) | MIA -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: CLE (+142) | MIA (-168)
Over/Under: O 33.5 (-110) | U 33.5 (-110)
Lines via FanDuel as of Saturday, December 28th
With the news of the weather and Tua's status, these lines have moved a lot. The Dolphins opened at -7, and the O/U was set at 40.5. This game will be ugly; two backup quarterbacks in nasty weather and a 33.5 O/U line do not exactly make for good viewing. I would advise you not to bet on this game, but I'd take the Browns +3.5 if I had to pick.
Prediction
Expect a lot of punts and sloppy football, but there has to be a winner. Although I took the Browns +3.5, I think the Dolphins' offensive talent can help them squeak out a win. If they win, they keep their season alive heading into the final week, regardless of any other results after the Broncos lost on Saturday.
Final Score: Dolphins 16, Browns 13
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