We're less than a month away from the beginning of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Season. With the Clash at Bowman-Gray Stadium on February 2 and the Daytona 500 two weeks later, the season will get off to a hot start, with NASCAR trying to ride the momentum of the 500 as long as they can. Fan-favorite tracks such as Atlanta, Homestead, Darlington, Bristol, and Talladega will be found in the first 10 races of the year, and the debuts of the cup race in Mexico City at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and the In-Season Tournament will take place in the summer.
As with any NASCAR season since the advent of the playoffs, any one of around 20 drivers can win races and compete for a championship this year. Of course, not all of those drivers (or their teams) will show up and compete the way they are expected to, but as the first three years of the NextGen car have shown, there is much more parity, and no one driver will dominate as extensively as drivers did in years past. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the upcoming NASCAR season.
Predicting the Playoff Field
In order to avoid wasting time telling you how Kyle Larson is guaranteed to make the playoffs, I'm going to separate this section into the locks, who are virtually guaranteed to get in (like Larson), the likely playoff drivers (who I believe will get in, but I am not as confident as the locks), and the toss-ups (who I either have getting a random win somewhere and locking themselves in or narrowly making the playoffs on points).
The locks (in no particular order): Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick.
None of these drivers should come as a surprise, as they are all some of the top drivers in the Cup Series. The surprises might be who was left off this list, which includes Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and defending series champion Joey Logano. Given the parity of the Next Gen and some of the surprise playoff misses that were seen last year (Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher), I don't believe they should be considered locks in the same way that the top seven are. The likely playoff drivers (in order of most likely to least likely) are Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Chase Briscoe, and Alex Bowman. I'll get more in-depth on these drivers than I did on the last.
Chris Buescher comes into this season after missing the playoffs by six points last season. However, he went on a tear in the final 10 races, winning Watkins Glen and having five other top-15 finishes. Had he made the playoffs (which he nearly did after coming close to wins at Kansas and Darlington early in the season), he likely would have made the Round of 8 for the second year in a row. This year, Buescher will have a win early on (more on that later) and will make another deep run in the playoffs.
Buescher's synopsis could be easily copied and pasted for Chastain, given how similar the seasons they had were. Chastain was right behind Buescher in the regular season points standings and got a win in the playoffs (at Kansas). The fact that Chastain didn't get a win in the first 26 races last year shows how unlucky he was; he had a run that would have given him the lead going into the final lap of the Daytona 500 before a late block by William Byron sent him spinning into the trioval, and he also had races at Texas and Nashville essentially won before late-race cautions led to him getting wrecked in overtime. If Chastain can have any luck this year, he'll lock himself in fairly early.
Brad Keselowski made the playoffs for the second year in a row last year, and he won at Darlington for his first win since 2021 and his first as an owner-driver, becoming the first owner-driver to win a race in his own car since Tony Stewart in 2016. It was a good season from Keselowski, one he can replicate in 2025. The only reason he is not in the lock category is that without his win (which came after the two dominant cars, Buescher and Reddick, took each other out battling for the win), he would have been dangerously close to the playoff cutline. If Keselowski can lock himself in with a win, there is no reason he can't be a contender in the playoffs.
Chase Briscoe needed a win in the final race of the regular season, the Southern 500, to lock himself into the playoffs. With his back against the wall, a bonsai pass and a shootout with Kyle Busch for the final 10 laps led to a win and a playoff berth. Despite advancing to the Round of 12 after two top-10 finishes at Watkins Glen and Bristol, Briscoe didn't do much in the playoffs, with only four top-15 finishes. Now that Briscoe has moved to Joe Gibbs Racing to replace the retiring Martin Truex Jr., he has become a dark horse for the title. Briscoe should lock himself into the playoffs much easier than he did last year, and when he does, watch out.
Finally, Alex Bowman has seemed like the outcast at Hendrick Motorsports ever since Kyle Larson joined the team in 2021. Around that same time, William Byron stepped up to become the championship contender he has turned into, and Chase Elliott was coming off a championship in 2020. Despite a four-win season in 2021, Bowman has only two wins since the Next Gen car was introduced in 2022. However, his consistency is something to behold. Injuries in 2022 and 2023 left him out of championship contention, though he was leading the points (without a win) when he broke his vertebrae in 2023. In the days of season-long points battles, Bowman would be a consistent championship contender, similar to Ricky Rudd, but in this era of Cup Series racing, his consistency is ignored. However, Bowman will snooker a win somewhere in the first 26 races this season, and when he does, the playoffs set up well for him to at least make it to the Round of 8.
The toss-ups (in order of most likely to least likely): Bubba Wallace, Shane Van Gisbergen, Ty Gibbs, and Josh Berry.
Bubba Wallace has a similar problem to Alex Bowman: he is very consistent, but that doesn't bode well for today's racing style and the playoff structure, which emphasizes winning above all else. I only have Wallace slightly below Bowman because he will point his way into the playoffs instead of winning his way in. However, I could see Wallace winning a race on an intermediate or superspeedway. Additionally, 23XI is currently suing NASCAR. While I don't see that affecting Reddick, it could be affecting Wallace because he is closer to the edge of playoff contention.
Shane Van Gisbergen has previously won in the Cup Series, debuting at the Chicago Street Course in 2023. He nearly followed it up with another win at Watkins Glen last year before a sensational last-lap pass by Chris Buescher put an end to his dominance in the race. Van Gisbergen should win at least one road course race this year, and in his maiden season of Cup Series contention, he will win his way into the playoffs. He has become better at ovals, too, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win at Martinsville or an intermediate, either. My pick for his win goes to Circuit of the Americas.
Ty Gibbs is entering his third season of full-time Cup Series competition and still has not won a race. He pointed his way into the playoffs last year before ending up as a first-round exit. Still, there were several races, including Pocono and Darlington, where he had one of the fastest cars, only to lose the race in what seemed to be pure luck. Gibbs will win a race this year, and once he does, look for him to have a similar run to Chase Elliott, who began rattling off wins like crazy once he broke through and won his first.
Josh Berry is the wildcard here. As a rookie, he finished 27th in points but was driving for a lame-duck Stewart-Haas team that shut down at the season's end. Berry rounded into form as the season went along, and by the end of the year, he was running good races. Meanwhile, the Wood Brothers’ former driver, Harrison Burton, did win the team's 100th race in the summer race at Daytona. Still, outside of that win, he had one other top-10, and that was in the spring race at Talladega. The Wood Brothers are a satellite team of Penske, and after making the playoffs last year, I look forward to them having a better year this time around. Berry had great performances at Darlington, New Hampshire, and Iowa, and he had the fastest car in the summer race at Daytona before he spun and flipped on the backstretch while leading with two laps to go. I predict that Berry will win at Talladega, Atlanta, or Daytona and lock himself into the playoffs.
As a refresher, the 16 drivers who will make the playoffs are Larson, Bell, Elliott, Hamlin, Byron, Blaney, Reddick, Buescher, Chastain, Keselowski, Briscoe, Bowman, Wallace, Van Gisbergen, Gibbs, and Berry. As a result, defending champion Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Daniel Suarez will miss the playoffs.
Predicting The Playoffs
Now that we have the 16 drivers who will make the playoffs, it's time to predict how each of the rounds will go.
Round of 16 eliminated drivers: Josh Berry, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, and Chase Briscoe.
The three races in this Round are the Southern 500 (Darlington), Enjoy Illinois 300 (Gateway), and Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Bristol). With two short tracks and Darlington, this Round seems to set up well for Berry, but the team won't be good enough to allow him to advance to the next Round.
As for Wallace, his history on short tracks isn't great, though his history at Darlington is good. He would need a win at Darlington to advance, though, and I don't see that happening. Buescher and Briscoe may seem like surprises here. Briscoe is the defending winner of the Southern 500, but outside of that win, he only has one other top-10 at Darlington. Meanwhile, his history at Gateway and Bristol isn't great. Buescher is similar, as he has a poor history at Darlington, though Bristol is one of his best tracks. These two contenders will have a bad race in the Round of 16 and are pushed out because of it.
Round of 12 eliminated drivers: Shane Van Gisbergen, Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, and Ty Gibbs
The drivers will head to New Hampshire, Kansas, and the Charlotte Roval in this Round. The Roval bodes well for both Van Gisbergen and Gibbs, but they won't be able to do well enough at the other two races to advance. Meanwhile, Chastain will run well at Kansas, but the Roval will be his undoing; he is a solid road course racer, but he has never run well at the Roval, with just one top-20 finish.
Finally, Hamlin will run well but lose out at the Roval after a tight battle. Hamlin has been good at New Hampshire and Kansas in the Next Gen car, but the Roval has been his sore spot. It'll be another year without one championship for one of the top two drivers in history.
Round of 8 eliminated drivers: Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Chase Elliott.
The Round of 8 has been revamped this year, with Talladega moving into the Round along with Martinsville and Las Vegas. Talladega is a wildcard, but Byron and Bowman have historically been snakebitten there, and the other two tracks don't set up well for them to come back from.
Meanwhile, Chase Elliott's history at Las Vegas has been horrible; it might be his worst track that the Cup Series goes to. He is good at superspeedway racing, and he has historically been good at Martinsville, but he will need to win one of those two races to make the championship race, and it won't happen.
That leaves Keselowski, who might be the biggest dark horse out of the four. Keselowski is great at Talladega, and he nearly won the spring race last year there for what would have been his seventh win at the track. Additionally, he's been tremendous at Las Vegas in the past, but in the Next Gen car, he hasn't been able to sync it up. Martinsville is the last race of the Round, and in the Next Gen car, he has been nothing short of awful there, with one top-10 in six races and more finishes outside the top 30 than in the top 20. If Keselowski can win Talladega or have a solid, if unspectacular, run at Martinsville, he could be racing for a championship.
The Championship Four: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick.
That leaves Larson, Bell, Blaney, and Reddick for the championship race at Phoenix. Blaney has been excellent at Phoenix in the Next Gen car, as he has six top-5s in the six races that have been run, with four second-place finishes. Bell, meanwhile, has been hit-or-miss at Phoenix in the last three years, with a win and four top-10s, but his other two races have been a 26th-place finish and a last-place finish after a brake blowout.
Larson, meanwhile, has a solid history at Phoenix, with a win and several top-10s. It isn't his best track, but it is far from his worst. As for Reddick, the spring race at Phoenix has been one of his best, but the fall race has been one of his worst.
Realistically, the race will come down to whoever of the four nails the setup and can get out front on the final pitstop. And for my money, I count on Bell to win the championship out of the four, though he will definitely have to work for it.
The Crown Jewel Winners
The Crown Jewel races are the most important races to the drivers. Depending on which drivers you ask, races that are mentioned are the Daytona 500, Brickyard 400, Coca-Cola 600, and Southern 500.
Daytona 500 Winner: Chris Buescher
Buescher won the summer race at Daytona in 2023, and he has historically been good on the superspeedways. He does a good job of keeping his nose clean, and he usually has a shot at the end. Given RFK's form on the superspeedways in recent years, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him in Victory Lane in February.
Coca-Cola 600 Winner: Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has won the Coca-Cola 600 once before, in 2020, but he has a good history at Charlotte. He very rarely runs bad there, and in the Next Gen car, he has gotten better as more years have gone by. Keselowski could easily make it 2-for-2 for RFK in the Crown Jewels
Brickyard 400 Winner: Tyler Reddick
Last year, the Brickyard 400 returned after three years running on the Indy Road Course, and Kyle Larson won in a barn-burner (except for the controversial finish). One spot behind Larson was Reddick, who had won the pole and had led a sizable chunk at the start of the race. Other than Larson, Reddick probably had the fastest car, and he was able to survive the wreckfest and strategy-filled race. Reddick clearly likes Indy, as he finished 8th in the previous race on the oval in 2020.
Southern 500 Winner: Ryan Blaney
This year, the Southern 500 will return to being the first race in the playoffs, and Ryan Blaney will capitalize and be the first driver to start his playoffs off with a bang. Blaney has gotten steadily better at Darlington as he has gone along, with three top-10s in his last eight races at the track. Those top-10s don't include the two races last year, where he had cars with top-10 speed but crashed early through no fault of his own. If Blaney can continue to get better, he could easily find himself with a Southern 500 crown.
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