Penn State should owe Michigan a lot for their stunning upset over the number two-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Because of that, the Nittany Lions, with a blowout win over the Maryland Terrapins, earned an invitation to play the undefeated Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title game. Not saying they don't deserve to be there; they most certainly do. Their defense is capable of slowing down the Ducks highly efficient offense. Penn State has one victory over a top-25 team, while Oregon has the most wins over top-25 teams this season with three, which makes the Nittany Lions the underdogs in this conference match.
The Oregon Ducks are methodical, but they aren't invincible. They nearly lost to Ohio State if it wasn't for head coach Dan Lanning purposely sending 12 men on the field for a penalty to throw Ohio State's offense off. They showed themselves as the same team that almost lost to Idaho in week 1 for the first time since 1950 when they were caught by surprise by Wisconsin being down 13-6 to them at the start of the fourth quarter. They came back and won the game 16-13 on their way to their second 12-0 season in school history.
Both teams are mirror reflections of each other in the sense of finishing a game. Their winning styles are more strategic than explosive. They each pick apart their opponents slowly and wait until the right moment to make the right move to determine the outcome. Almost like a surgeon taking their time with the operation, making sure not to screw up and cautious with every decision to be made.
Game Information
Date: Saturday, December 7
Start Time: 8:00 PM EDT
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson on the call)
Betting Information
Point Spread: Oregon -3.5 (-110) | Penn State +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Oregon -185 | Penn State +155
Over/Under: O 49.5 (-110) | U 49.5 (-110)
Oregon Ducks
Offense
This Ducks offense is nowhere near as explosive as their supersonic offenses from the early to mid-2010s. They are more strategic in moving the ball and scoring points. They are more patient and steady, with some physicality in their formula. It's a pass-oriented offense with arguably the best line in the country. They made it through a whole game without allowing a sack to the number one defense in the land, the Ohio State Buckeyes. They finished the regular season, allowing just 12 sacks.
Dillon Gabriel, owner of the most career touchdown passes in FBS history, leads the number one passing offense in the Big Ten against the 3rd-rated pass defense in the conference. Penn State has a defense that has permitted 169.8 passing yards per game and will face an offense that has passed for 277.6 yards per game. Their quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, is a multi-dimensional gunslinger, completing 73.5 percent of his throws and can make a run for the endzone when the team needs a touchdown one way or the other. He accounted for 31 of Oregon's 54 touchdowns during the regular season. Having the third-best completion percentage in the nation while throwing the football at 8.8 yards per attempt and passing for 272.92 yards per game.
Despite patrolling an offense that doesn't run so much, he finds his support in star pass catchers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart. The last time Penn State's defense faced two wideouts like them was when they played Ohio State's Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. They limited Smith to 4 catches and 55 receiving yards and Egbuka to 3 catches and 31 receiving yards in the contest. Their third-best option, Carnell Tate, only had two catches and 15 receiving yards against the Nittany Lions' secondary. However, the Nittany Lions are defending against a more efficient passer in Dillon Gabriel. He has a 165.05 pass efficiency rating, which is the 8th-highest in the nation. If Stewart and Johnson get locked down, he can consider targets to Traeshon Holden, as he averages 16.1 yards per catch.
Defense
The Ducks are the conference's sack leaders with 39. That total is also tied for the sixth-most in the nation with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has only been sacked 11 times this year. Only 6 teams in the FBS have allowed the fewest total yards per game, and only 7 teams in the FBS have allowed fewer total yards this season than the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks' defense is much better at defending the pass than it is at stopping the run.
They allowed 171.5 passing yards per game, the eighth-fewest in 2024. That stands right below Penn State for the eighth-fewest in the Big Ten conference. Their run defense, led by linebackers Jeffrey Bassa and Bryce Boettcher, has surrendered the 22nd-fewest rushing yards per game (112.4) and given up the 24th-fewest yards per rush (3.60). They held the Buckeyes' dynamic rushing combo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to under 90 yards rushing each when they played them. If they could slow those two down, slowing down the Nittany Lions star rushers in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen shouldn't be a task so brand new.
Drew Allar for the Nittany Lions has a rifle for an arm who is careful and accurate with the shots he takes down the field. His passing efficiency of 167.55 is above Dillon Gabriel's 165.05 pass efficiency rating for 7th-highest among FBS quarterbacks. His 9.36 yards per pass attempt average is the 5th-best in the nation and is only lower than Indiana's Kurtis Rourke's 10.67 average in the Big Ten. The Ducks secondary will face a passer who has only thrown six interceptions but has only thrown 18 touchdowns for the year. It's a complementary offense with some gadget plays that they usually run with Tyler Warren, their all-around tight end. The mission for them is to look for number 44 for the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Offense
This offense, during every game this season, has run like a car during the winter; it takes time to warm up before it can get on the road. When it does get going, it can travel down the field very well with the versatile playmakers that it features. One of those playmakers is the all-around tight end, Tyler Warren. He spent this season catching the football, snapping the football, running the football, and threw a touchdown pass this season against Kent State. He is also Penn State's primary quarterback in the wildcat formation. His play against the USC Trojans when he was under center snapping the ball to Drew Allar and went long for an aggressive touchdown grab over a USC defender in the endzone on that same play. That play tells you everything you need to know about Tyler Warren. With his supreme hands, eye-popping versatility, and the way he finds his way through coverages conjures up a comparison to Travis Kelce from the Kansas City Chiefs.
Their two-star running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen together, have stepped into the endzone 18 times this season, rushing and receiving. They even combined for 1,827 all-purpose yards this season, which has a lot to do with Drew Allar's 18 touchdown passes. Six of those scoring passes went to either Allen or Singleton. Tyler Warren also caught six of those passes for touchdowns. They have scored most of their touchdowns in red zone territory, which is why Penn State is one of the best red zone offenses in the country.
Their dynamic touchdown makers utilized in a Big 12 offensive scheme transferred over by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should be able to confuse one of the worst red zone defenses in the country. Oregon's red zone defense has allowed 30 red zone scores, with 18 of them resulting in 6 points for the year. Kotelnicki's offensive scheme is the same scheme that helped turn around the Kansas Jayhawks' football program from 2021-23 when he was there. Helping them turn into one of the most dangerous teams in the Big 12 and molded quarterback Jalon Daniels into one of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football.
Defense
Abdul Carter is the most dynamic pass rusher in college football. His ability to stuff backfield runners at the line of scrimmage and chasing down quarterbacks makes him a traditional edge rusher. Not many edge rushers are focused on playing the run; they want to get sacks. Carter only stays in one spot for part of the game. He would sometimes move around from left to right on the line of scrimmage and even disguise himself as a middle linebacker. He sheds double-team blocks so well with his signature dip under move. It's the same dip move he uses when coming off the edge like he's Von Miller and possesses off-the-edge speed like Derrick Thomas.
His impact has made the Nittany Lions defense the 8th-ranked rushing defense in the FBS by allowing just 97.0 rushing yards per game. They have also surrendered no more than five rushing touchdowns all season, which is second-best in the FBS—also, permitting no more than 3.12 yards per rush to their opponents, which is 12th-best in the FBS and 4th-best in the Big Ten. The Oregon Ducks bring just the 56th-ranked rushing offense in the FBS with just an average of 4.79 yards per carry.
Their defense doesn't allow many yards and points, as they have allowed just 3,201 total yards and 266.8 yards per game to opposing offenses. Both are fourth-best in college football this season. Also, allowing just 16 touchdowns all season, which is third-best in the FBS. Penn State's game plan for Oregon would most likely be to block off the outside zones and force them to try to run inside against them. Dare them to bust through the middle of their defense and dare them to call design runs for Dillon Gabriel.
Prediction
Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren will be the deciding factors for the Nittany Lions to win or lose this game. Tyler Warren is the best tight end in the country, and the Ducks defense has yet to face a tight end of his caliber. Oregon's offensive line didn't allow Ohio State's Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau to sack Dillon Gabriel, but Abdul Carter is a much more versatile edge rusher and will give their O-line much bigger problems. Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks offense would have to continue throwing short to intermediate passes to prevent from being hit by Carter. Get the football out of his hands quickly and seek deep ball opportunities once he can.
Meanwhile, being ranked the seventh best in the nation in stopping runs and 25th best in the country in running the football, Penn State can beat the Ducks by brute and strategy. Penn State's defense may surrender many yards to Oregon's offense, but their red zone defense is one of the best red zone defenses by being one of just four teams in college football this year that have allowed less than 20 scores to their opponents in red zone territory. While Abdul Carter takes charge of this stingy defense, their two-headed monster running game of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton should pound the rock and wear down Oregon's defense.
Final Score: Penn State Nittany Lions 29, Oregon Ducks 23
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