Photo via Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
The National League (NL) MVP race between the Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani and New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor is heating up, and there's a lot of discussion about the best ways to evaluate the two elite players.
But first, let's establish a few things before making any statements that would evoke any intense feelings or anger:
No. 1: there's a whole lot of season left. Around a month and a half, plenty of time for things to change on either side. I'm not here to make any predictions on how either will finish this season, simply to point out where each player provides value to their team.
No. 2: if you disagree and think one player is more deserving than the other, that's fine. It's too close to really decide, but I figured it'd be a good thought exercise to try and force myself to make a decision one way or the other.
The Argument for Lindor
Firstly, am I going to allow my desire for something as meaningless as Lindor inexplicably missing the All-Star team ending up with the MVP trophy influence my decision? Perhaps. But we'll set that aside.
Lindor is having one of the best defensive seasons of any player in baseball. Full stop, end of sentence.
His 13 outs above average are just mind-boggling, and it seems like he's always been such a great defender up the middle that it's crazy to think he's gotten even better as he enters his 30s.
The fact that he's doing it at a premier position like shortstop is absolutely remarkable and is something that should be a massive influence on where this conversation begins.
But then you can move onto his offensive metrics, like his 126 wRC+, and his base running value, which is a +2 on Baseball Savant.
His defensive production alone solidifies him as a top MVP candidate. He's the best defensive player in baseball who's a really good hitter at a premium position. But his offensive production, even if its not as flashy, is still valuable to New York.
His approach is fine, with most of his plate discipline metrics coming in as average, but what stands out is his quality of contact when he does put the ball in play. It's not Ohtani-level, but it's up there. 47.5 hard hit rate, 90.9 average exit velocity, whatever stat you look at, Lindor has some pop.
He does a fair amount of his damage, surprisingly, against breaking pitches, with run values of nine and six against sliders and curveballs. Of course, he still hammers four-seam fastballs, like any good hitter should, with a 58.3 hard-hit rate, and his xwOBA against sinkers is a solid .434.
All of this to say, he's doing a lot right at the plate, too. He's a defensive wizard, but his bat more than plays, he's a middle-of-the-order presence. It would be pointless to create any hypotheticals about if he was in Ohtani's situation with Freddie Freeman and/or Mookie Betts hitting around him. Lindor can only control so much and that context is important.
The Argument for Ohtani
Now we get to Ohtani, whose defensive impact is exactly zero as a designated hitter (DH). There's a reason a DH has never won the award; they don't have any impact other than their bat, and that goes against a lot of traditional thinking in baseball.
Or does it? Think about Miggy Cabrera, Ted Williams — both elite hitters who were actively limiting their team with subpar defensive play.
Cabrera managed to steal an MVP (or two) away from Mike Trout in the early 2010s, mostly off the strength of his Triple Crown, RBI totals, and the fact that he played on a more successful team than Trout.
Thankfully, none of those factors really come into play anymore with voters, but to act as if someone who makes no defensive impact has never won an MVP before would be ridiculous and ignorant. There certainly have been sluggers who have actively hurt their teams by playing the field who have won the award before.
So I get how a DH winning the award is historic in a 'it's never happened before!' sense but, in reality, this type of thinking isn't totally new.
Let's get on with Ohtani though, because, despite his recent struggles, he's still a lot of fun to talk about.
Ohtani just hits the absolute crap out of the ball. He's a tremendous hitter, combining a great approach that gets him on base with elite bat-to-ball skills and some massive strength. He walks a bunch, and when he makes contact it goes really far really quickly.
Like other elite hitters, he mashes four seamers, doing so at an elite rate with a .496 xwOBA, but it's been his improvement sliders and changeups over the years that have led to his somehow becoming an even better hitter over the past couple years. He's increased his run value against those pitches a great deal over the past couple years by simply hitting those pitches harder while maintaining a somewhat similar whiff rate.
So, Ohtani is the best hitter in the NL. But is that enough to offset his lack of a position and his somewhat overrated base running (he's actually less valuable than Lindor on the bases according to Savant despite Ohtani's higher sprint speed)?
I say no. I'm a big believer in defense, especially up the middle, and Lindor is the best in the business. Call it Ohtani fatigue, but I just think Lindor's more valuable to his team this year.
Now, the possibility of a DH winning it for the first time plus the silly 'winning team' tiebreaker might be enough to entice voters to give it to Ohtani over Lindor since it's so close, but I respectfully disagree with that sentiment.
At this point of the season, my ballot would go to Lindor.
Comments