Football is back! The 2024-25 season kicked off this week, and at 4:25 PM on Sunday, fans will get to see the new-look Washington Commanders. The expectations for Washington in the coming year have been mainly about the team starting to rebuild under the new regime. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels debuts against a tough Tampa Bay defense that ranked fifth in the NFL for points allowed per game in 2023.
Bobby Wagner and the revamped front seven of the defense will be tasked with stopping Tampa Bay's pedestrian running game from a year ago. Tampa Bay was a playoff team just a year ago, but there's no reason to believe they are unbeatable. The main story to watch throughout the game and this season will be how this team grows together. It will sometimes be a grind, but there is plenty for Commanders fans to be excited about.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Start Time: 4:25 PM EST
Location: Tampa Bay, Florida
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
TV Info: FOX
Commanders Uniform Info: "Legendary Burgundy" (Burgundy Tops, Gold Pants)
Buccaneers 2023 Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 21.2 (t-18th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2 (t-5th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 323.9 (20th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 233.6 (12th) / 90.4 (31st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 343.1 (20th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 249.6 (28th) / 93.5 (4th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 41.22% (9th) / 39.52% (22nd)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 48.08% (27th) / 45% (3rd)
Penalties: 100 (19th)
Penalty Yardage: 751 (12th)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
Tampa Bay's defense was in the top five of the league in rushing yards allowed per game last year. The main reason for their success is a front seven of stud veterans, most of whom have career years. The Bucs run a base 3-4 defensive scheme led by Vita Vea and Levonte David, who are coming off bounce-back seasons. Antoine Winfield Jr. put up his best season in 2023 with career highs in tackles, sacks, forced fumbles, and interceptions. Winfield is considered one of the top safeties in the NFL at only 26 years old.
Tampa's weakness was its secondary, which allowed 249.6 passing yards per game, ranking 28th in the league. Kamel Dean and Zyon McCollum return as the team's top corners, and neither had an interception in 2023. Jordan Whitehead and Winfield complete the defensive backfield, with Whitehead coming over from the Jets.
Look for Jayden Daniels and company to try to attack the Tampa DBs by running some quick slants or pump-and-go routes. Kingsbury's use of Eckler and Robinson on screens, along with the quick passes, will be vital against a defense with a strong front seven. Todd Bowles loves to bring pressure on first and third downs and has been a savant at disguising the blitz. It will be up to Jayden Daniels and OC Kliff Kingsbury to win the chess match, figure out those disguises, and beat Bowles at his own game.
Offense
One of the most significant investments the Bucs made this year is on their offensive line, anchored by veteran left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Rookie Graham Barton has easily moved over to center, adding to an already top-end offensive line. Run-blocking has been the focus and strength heading into 2024, trying to help a running game that was 31st in rushing yards just a year ago.'
The athleticism of Tampa's offensive line makes it perfect for new Bucs OC Liam Coen to run a gap scheme and outside-zone runs. This will allow Baker Mayfield to run play-action fakes and hit receivers like Mike Evens for big gains. It will be up to Bobby Wagner and company to stop those runs and limit the Tampa offense.
Dan Quinn's staff has to be considerably focused on Baker Mayfield going into Sunday afternoon. Coming off a bounce-back season, it's unknown what kind of Baker we will see in week one. Tampa Bay finished 2023 ranked 12th in passing yards and will attack Washington's secondary. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are back for 2024, and Godwin is looking to bounce back from a down year in 2023.
Washington Commanders
Defense
The storylines for the Washington defense heading into the first week of the season will revolve around how this new group will mesh. Dan Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach who brought in a top-class Defensive Coordinator in Joe Whitt Jr.. The Tampa offense will be a huge test to see where this revamped defense ranks and can set the tone for 2024.
Rookie Mike Sainristil may already have been the best corner on the Washington defense the following year when they finished in the basement of passing yards allowed. Containing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be a challenging test to start the year and show us where this secondary stands after drafting a top defensive back.
The key to the Commanders' defense will be their front seven winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. If the defense can stop the run and put pressure on Baker Mayfield to force throws, the secondary will be able to make some plays. Washington brought in Clelin Ferrell, Dante Fowler, and Frankie Luvu to be wreckers in the pass rush, and Sunday will be the first time we see all three on the field.
Offense
Jayden Daniels. The story heading into Week 1 is how the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL will look in his first career game. From everything we've seen during the preseason, Daniels has the skill and leadership ability to captain the Washington offense right out of the gate. Something to look out for is how he will react to adversity in his debut.
Daniels and the offensive line will be tasked with identifying Tampa's blitz schemes and knowing when to audible out of a specific play. Kliff Kingsbury knows how to handle a rookie quarterback, having worked with Kyler Murray during his first couple years in the league. Tampa's defense was among the worst in passing defense a year ago, and Washington will try to exploit that this week.
The offseason has been interesting, to say the least, for Washington's wide receiver room, with plenty of turnover. Terry McLaurin returns as Jayden Daniels's clear-cut number-one target, but who will line up opposite him? Olamide Zaccheaus and "Downtown" Noah Brown will play a significant role if the Buccaneers double-cover McLaurin. If Austin Eckler and Brian Robinson get going, it should set up a play-action bomb to Brown.
Betting Info
Points Spread: WAS +3.5 (-108) / TB -3.5 (-112)
Moneyline: WAS (+154) / TB (-165)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-110) / U42.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, September 7th
At first glance, this game looks like a no-brainer for everyone to hammer Tampa due to a rookie quarterback going up against a team that made the playoffs a year ago. Trends have been showing that some are weary of betting the spread and just taking the Bucs moneyline. The first week of the season is always up in the air, so a moneyline bet would be the safest way to go if you are betting against the Commanders.
Prediction
I'm taking the Commanders to upset the reigning NFC South champs on the road to kick off the season. Jayden Daniels has the weapons and the coaching to navigate Todd Bowles' defense and put up points. The Commanders go on the road and win 28-24, stopping Baker Mayfield from completing a game-winning drive.
Final Score: Washington Commanders: 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
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