Another NFL playoff and another matchup for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. This matchup between the two AFC greats has been predicted for many months, but the time has officially come to see who will take the win this season.
The Chiefs are fresh off of a Divisional win against the Houston Texans. While a few controversial calls went their way throughout the game, the Chiefs were able to come away with a win to advance to the Championship. The Bills are fresh off of a win against the Baltimore Ravens. After going up early, the Bills struggled in the second half. If it weren't for Ravens tight end Mark Andrews dropping a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter, the Bills might not be in this position.
In their last meeting, the Bills won. To date, the Chiefs are 4-2 against the Bills in the playoffs. However, all three matchups between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have gone in favor of the Chiefs.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, January 26
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. CT
Location: Kansas City, MO
Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on the call)
Chiefs Uniform Info: Red Tops, White Bottoms
Bills 2024 Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 30.7 (2nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.1 (8th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 360.5 (10th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 224.3 (11th) and 136.2 (9th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 339.2 (17th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 222.5 (20th) and 116.7 (12th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 44.74% (7th) and 44.09% (28th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 68.42% (2nd) and 56.92% (16th)
Penalties: 120 (8th)
Penalty Yards: 888 (19th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Buffalo Bills: Taylor Rapp (FS)
Kansas City Chiefs: N/A
Buffalo Bills
Defense
Last week, the Bills' defense came out strong against the Ravens, especially for a unit that had many question marks going into the game. The Bills held running back Derrick Henry to only 84 rushing yards, compared to the 199 they allowed him to have in their regular-season matchup. While they did give up more points in the second half, the defense was able to take advantage of the Ravens' mistakes.
In their regular-season game, the Bills also took advantage of the Chiefs' mistakes. Mahomes had two interceptions, and the Bills' offense turned those mistakes into points.
In this contest, the Bills' defense must focus on turnovers and the run game. The defense must take advantage of any mistakes from Mahomes and once again turn those mistakes into points. They also need to pay attention to Kareem Hunt because if they can stop Henry, they can absolutely stop Hunt.
Offense
Against the Ravens last week, the Bills came out of the gate scoring early. Going into halftime, the Bills were up 21-10, and it was looking like the game would quickly end in their favor. They then did not score in the third quarter and only six in the fourth quarter. Without a bit of luck at the end of the game, the Bills might have found themselves in overtime.
When the teams matched up in November, the Bills offense reigned supreme. They found themselves taking over the time of possession, something the Chiefs usually took control of. While Allen's stats were not amazing, he got away from Chiefs defenders and even had a touchdown run.
In this game, the Bills need to focus on their run game. In their game in November, the Bills did not design too many plays for running back James Cook, which should change against the Chiefs this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Defense
Against the Texans, the Chiefs' defense struggled at times but never broke. While they gave up 336 total yards, the unit dialed in at the end of the game to win.
During their regular-season game, the defense found itself on the field more than usual. When it came to the run game, the Bills did not hand the ball off to Cook very often, but the Chiefs could not control Allen, who had a big touchdown run at the end of the game.
In this contest, the offense must dial in and keep Allen and Cook from making big plays. While they allowed Joe Mixon and CJ Stroud to make big plays last week, the lack of offensive production will not result in a win against the Bills.
Offense
Despite winning against the Texans, the Chiefs did not have many big offensive plays. Travis Kelce, a known playoff contributor, had the only big play, an 11-yard touchdown. The Chiefs struggled with short passes, and they'll have to improve in that department if they want to challenge the Bills' defense.
When they last faced the Bills, the offense made many blunders. They surrendered their time of possession crown to the Bills, giving the defense a hard time since they were on the field for a much longer period of time. Mahomes also threw a few interceptions. This might not be too big of a storyline, however, since Mahomes has been much more disciplined in this field in recent weeks.
In this game, the Chiefs' offense needs to focus on what has been working for them. While they weren't the most explosive offense against the Texans, they were able to find lanes that worked for them to win the game. Throwing the ball to Kelce and handing the ball off to Hunt have been working for the Chiefs, so they should stick to that game plan against the Bills.
Betting Info
Points Spread: BUF +1.5 (-108) | KC -1.5 (-112)
Moneyline: BUF +105 | KC -125
Over/Under: BUF O 48.5 (-118) | KC U 48.5 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, January 25
Prediction
While this is the most anticipated matchup of the year, I can't see the postseason stats changing this year. Everything has gone right for the Chiefs this season, so I would be surprised if they could not beat the Bills to advance to the Super Bowl. I do, however, think it will be a strong fight put up by the Bills and a close final score.
Final Score: Chiefs 24, Bills 21
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