As the mid-summer classic has come and gone and teams review their first-half performance, MLB front offices have one crucial question to answer: "Are we in a spot to buy at the trade deadline and make a playoff push?”
They are currently sitting at 47-51, 8.5 games back out of first place in the NL Central and 3.5 games behind the last wildcard spot. The Chicago Cubs have a decision to make regarding the trade deadline. It doesn't look good on paper, but the Cubs may have turned the ship just at the right time. Winning seven out of their last ten may motivate Jed Hoyer and company to be buyers at the trade deadline. Enough speculation for now, as there is plenty to dig into from the first half of the 2024 Chicago Cubs season.
Hot Spring into a Cold Summer
The Cubs started hot with a bright outlook and a new manager for the 2024 season. Through March and April, the Cubs had a record 18-12 and looked like a prime candidate for the NL Central title. But, sadly, May came around, and it brought some ugly Cubs baseball with it. In May, the Cubs had a record of 10-18 and had a run differential of -25 runs. Sure, injuries had much to do with it (I am sure everyone remembers the terrifying middle infield of Miles Mastrobouni and Nick Madrigal). Still, veteran players like Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson underperformed much, especially in the catching position. Now, the Cubs are in catch-up mode. While being last in the NL Central, the Cubs still have a fighting chance at a wild card spot and have started July well with a record of 8-5 and a +25 run differential. But can the Cubs keep their winning ways, and have they done enough to be buyers by the deadline?
(Seems like this is where a lot of turnaround happened)
Rookies Making an Impact
Jed Hoyer and company have done well by loading up with prospects and finding rookie talent, which is something we’ve been able to see this season. Sure, we all know about Shota Imanaga and Michael Busch (more on them below), but the Cubs have also been able to feature other rookies who have impacted the team. Formerly, the Cubs' number one overall prospect, Pete-Crow Armstrong, has made considerable strides in his first entire season at the Major League level. PCA’s bat may not be all the way there, but his fielding has been tremendous, as he is already the leader in defensive runs saved in center field. Don't forget about his base stealing, as he is already 17/17 in stolen bases.
Onto the pitching side of things, two rookies in the starting rotation have had decent seasons before getting hurt. Both Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are currently on the IL but have made a name for themselves as pieces in the starting rotation. Wicks has only appeared in seven games this season and has pitched okay with a 4.18 ERA; it is just not a huge sample size from him this season. However, Ben Brown (still 11th on the team in WAR) was having an excellent rookie season with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.084 WHIP, and you can't forget the seven-inning no-hit game with 10 strikeouts he threw against Milwaukee. It is still unclear when we could see these two back in a Cubs uniform, as the latest report regarding seeing them anytime soon has not been too good.
Starter Success
Continuing with pitching, which is currently ninth in the big leagues in terms of ERA, the starting rotation is a big reason the Cubs still somewhat have a shot at playoff contention. The rotation currently includes veteran ace Justin Steele (who has the lowest ERA since July 12, 2022, at 2.73), Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski (not sure what the rotation will be like out of the break, someone could get moved to the bullpen). All these guys listed above have had their impressive moments; if you take out Hendricks and Wesneski, all the other pitchers have an ERA under 3.30; heck, Wesneski’s ERA is 4.03, which isn't bad for a back-end rotation guy. Having a starting rotation that can go out and give quality starts will be necessary for the Cubs in the second half.
First-Half Awards
MVP: Ian Happ
First Half Stats: AVG: .243, OBP: .352, SLG: .458, OPS+: 126, HR: 15, RBI: 57, 2B: 23, SB: 7
After the Cub's terrible offensive slump from May through the end of June, picking an MVP was tough, and choosing a pitcher was an option. However, after the Cubs found some resurgence, one veteran player seemed to have led the resurgence: Ian Happ.
Looking at Happ’s stats, you may not be impressed by the .243 batting average, but beyond the batting average, Happ has arguably been the Cub's best overall player of the first half. Happ leads the Cubs in doubles, RBIs, walks, runs, total bases, and WAR. Happ is second in home runs, OPS+, and wRC+. Even in his last 26 games, Happ has been lighting up the stat sheet with a 1.3 WAR and a 192 wRC+! Let’s also not forget Happ’s gold-glove caliber defense, currently at 1.000 field percentage, seven outfield assists, and 174 putouts. Happ struggled early in the year, which led to many Cubs fans calling for his head, but now that Happ has turned it around for good, the offense looks to be on the up. For the Cubs to be buyers at the deadline, Happ must continue to be an RBI contributor and get on base at an elite rate.
Cy Young: Shota Imanaga
First Half Stats: GS:17, W-L:8-2, ERA: 2.97, IP: 97.0, H:92, ER:32, HR:12, BB:16, SO:98, WHIP:1.113
Another favorite for MVP or ROY, Shota Imanaga, has been an absolute steal for the Cubs in free agency. Imanaga had an ERA of 1.86 through April and May and a record of 5-1 through 10 games. Shota would also earn NL Rookie of the Month honors for April. The Japanese native hit a rough patch in June as he posted a 5.67 ERA in 5 starts, although Imanaga looks to be on the rebound as he posted two quality starts in July. To wrap up Imanga’s first-half accomplishments, the star-lefty represented the Cubs in the all-star game. Imanaga is essential to the Cubs' pitching staff and contributes to winning (2.0 WAR). Still, he will have to find different ways to get hitters out, as it seems the league has started to recognize the high fastball and low splitter approach that Shota has been using.
Rookie of the Year: Michael Busch
First Half Stats: AVG: .271, OBP: .357, SLG: .466, OPS+: 129, HR: 12, RBI: 36, 2B: 19, SB: 1
There is no doubt in my mind that by the end of the season, Michael Busch could be the team’s MVP, and in terms of my subjective awards, he was just narrowly behind Happ for first-half MVP. Busch came over in a surprise trade with Yency Almonte during the off-season. Busch started hot with a five-game home run streak in mid-April; the rookie did cool off in May (.208/.337/.375) but has been on an absolute surge in June (28 hits in his last 24 games). Along with Imanaga, Busch also has the opportunity to be ROY for the entire NL (unless Paul Skenes has something to say about it) if he can continue with high production in the lineup.
Surprise Player: Jameson Taillon
First Half Stats: GS:16, W-L:7-4, ERA: 3.10, IP: 93.0, H:90, ER:32, HR:12, BB:18, SO:75, WHIP:1.161
This was a fun category of players to pick from (Mastro, PCA, heck, even Busch), but the only reason the Cubs are still somewhat alive is pitching, and Taillon has been a massive part of that. Last year was a bit ugly for the veteran pitcher, and many Cub fans were nervous about what pitcher Taillon would be. But Taillon has been nothing short of a quality starter and a solid number three in the rotation. Currently seventh on the team in WAR, Taillon will look to keep putting in quality work and keep the Cubs alive for playoff contention.
Dissapoting Player: Christopher Morel
First Half Stats: AVG: .202, OBP: .303, SLG: .387, OPS+: 92, HR: 18, RBI: 50, 2B: 7, SB: 7
I get it. Dansby Swanson has had some tough months offensively, but his bat is playing a little better, and he is still playing elite-caliber defense. That brought me to Christopher Morel, who both Counsell and Hoyer invested time in being the everyday third-basemen. Sadly, it seems like the “Morel experiment” isn't working as they hoped. Mastrobouni has started drawing starts at third along with David Bote, and Morel has seen time at DH in recent games.
I also get it; there's been a ton of bad luck going to Morel's way (.218 BABIP and a 44.4% hard-hit rate), but that average has to come up a little bit, and the defense has to improve flat-out (.942 FD%, 8 errors). If Morel doesn't become a more consistent player, the Cubs could decide to move on at some point as prospects like Matt Shaw and James Triantos loom in the minors. But Morel could still be a key competitor in the Cubs lineup, especially with his light-tower power.
The Trade Deadline and What's to Come
To bring everything together, have the Cubs done enough in the first half to buy at the deadline? I would say yes; the Cubs lineup is missing a bat that can constantly drive in runs, and the bullpen could use another arm or two. The lineup is currently 13th in on-base percentage but 18th in RBis. If the Cubs could get a solid cleanup hitter (Vlad. Jr or maybe Isaac Paredes), many more runs could be crossing home plate in the second half. Also, with the bullpen, having a solid closer needs to be a priority. Hector Neris has shown signs of inconsistency, and Mark Leiter Jr performs better as a lefty specialist and a setup man. Options like Mason Miller or Tanner Scott could help solidify the Cubs bullpen. Yes, some significant prospects will likely have to give up to acquire any of the guys listed above, but it's time for the Cubs to push and get back to being the 2015-2018 Chicago Cubs.
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