The most exciting part of the Champions League is finally here. After a few surprises in the inaugural playoff round between the 9th and 24th seeds, the stage is set. A handful of big names are missing, but for the most part, it's the usual suspects competing for Europe's grand prize. The new format has made it so there are quite a few matchups that we wouldn't have expected to see this early, and it's exciting. Here's how I think the round of 16 matchups will play out.
Benfica vs Barcelona
Benfica snuck into this round with a 4-3 win on aggregate against Monaco, but Barcelona is a whole different animal. These two played each other in a 5-4 thriller just over a month ago as part of the league phase. Barcelona essentially secured a top-two seed with that comeback victory, but it gave Benfica a blueprint of how to attack them.
Barca is exceptionally aggressive; between La Liga and the Champions League, they've scored 99 goals in 34 matches, the most out of any team in Europe's top five leagues. They also play the highest defensive line, leading in catching opponents offside. This style of play suffocates the opposition but is also extremely risky. One perfectly timed run can destroy the high line and leave the defense scrambling, and Barca has been involved in a few goal-fests because of it. However, it's worked more often than not, and they won't change their style against a Benfica team that is at a significant talent disadvantage.
Raphinha is having the season of his life, and Lamine Yamal continues to grow into one of Europe's best players despite still being a teenager. Benfica may very well cause Barca some problems at home in the first leg, but in the end, they won't have enough to win this tie.
Prediction: Barcelona
Borussia Dortmund vs Lille
As the most surprising team to qualify as part of the top eight, Lille is rewarded with facing one of last season's finalists, Borussia Dortmund. Luckily for Lille, however, this is not the Dortmund of last season. Dortmund are instead having a horrid time in the Bundesliga, currently sitting in 10th. They recently fired manager Nuri Sahin and replaced him with Nico Kovac, under whom they've been improving. On the other hand, Lille had a tremendous run earlier in the season, going undefeated from September 21st through January 21st. However, they've been shaky since this run and were knocked out of the French Cup by a second-division team.
Lille's defensive solidity will be tested against Dortmund. Serhou Guirassy will lead the line for Dortmund, and he's the top scorer in this season's Champions League with ten goals in eight matches. He also scored four goals in a single game against Union Berlin just last weekend. Dortmund have been much better defensively under Kovac, and outside of top scorer Jonathan David, Lille don't have a single player with more than four league goals.
I still believe that Lille can keep things competitive if they can get Dortmund to play at a slower pace, but these are two teams heading in different directions. I'm backing Dortmund to win narrowly.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund
Feyenoord vs Inter Milan
For my money, this is the most straightforward call of the round. Inter Milan conceded a singular time in the eight league games despite facing Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal, and Manchester City. Feyenoord just sold top scorer, Santiago Gimenez, brought in a new manager in Robin Van Persie, and were also very fortunate to get past Inter's rivals AC Milan in the playoff round. Had it not been for a Theo Hernandez red card, we would likely be seeing a clash between the two Milan clubs.
Simeone Inzaghi has had success in the Champions League with Inter for a reason: he's a brilliant manager who adapts his team to their opposition. Defensively solid teams tend to do well in the Champions League, and that's what this Inter team is. Expect them to go through comfortably, even if the scoreboard might not show it.
Prediction: Inter Milan
Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
One of several matchups that have come too soon, the defending champions of Germany, Bayer Leverkusen, face the champions-elect, Bayern Munich. These two played a 0-0 draw just under three weeks ago, but the reality is that Leverkusen dominated the game. They held Bayern to zero shots in the first half, the first time that had happened to Bayern in a Bundesliga match since 1992. Leverkusen, meanwhile, took 15 shots and had 69% possession in the second half but could not find the net. Bayern have been shaky in the Champions League; they placed 12th in the league phase and only just got by a far inferior Celtic team in the playoff round.
But one would be foolish to count Bayern out of this tie. They still boast a potent forward line with Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, and Michael Olise. They're the second-highest scorers in Europe's top five leagues behind Barcelona and boast the best goal difference. Bayern's centerback partnership of Min-Jae Kim and Dayot Upamecano is also solid, but they've had lapses of concentration at times that have cost Bayern in big games. Leverkusen's main man is attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz, and he had a brilliant game when these two teams last met. Wingbacks Jeremie Frimpong and Alex Grimaldo will be crucial in Xabi Alonso's gameplan to provide width and stretch Bayern.
Alonso seems to have Bayern's number; he's never lost to them since becoming Leverkusen's manager. That said, this should still be a tightly contested affair. This seems to be a popular "upset" pick, which scares me a bit, but I'm picking Leverkusen to go through.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
PSV vs Arsenal
This draw is a tough break for PSV. They deservedly made it past Juventus in the playoff round, only to come up against another defensive juggernaut in Arsenal. Arsenal's dreams of capturing the Premier League title this season have all but disappeared, meaning that they put their complete focus on the Champions League. They played an excellent league phase, only losing once and conceding three goals in total.
PSV had an average league phase despite holding the honor of being the only team to defeat (a heavily rotated) Liverpool. They attack heavily through their wide forwards and crosses into the box, which Arsenal excels at defending. Their saving grace could be that Arsenal's forward line is heavily injured. They're having to use midfielder Mikel Merino as a makeshift center forward and are relying on 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri to produce moments of magic.
No team at this stage of the competition should be underestimated, but Arsenal could not have asked for a better draw. With all their eggs in the Champions League basket, a loss would be disastrous for Arsenal, even with all their injuries. They'll win a low-scoring tie.
Prediction: Arsenal
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Another blockbuster showdown will be between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. The Champions League is Real's competition; they've won it five out of the last nine times, including two of the previous three. They won last year and added a top-three forward and superstar, Kylian Mbappe, leading many to believe their victory this year would be a foregone conclusion. That hasn't quite been the case, as they've had defensive woes, and Mbappe took a while to adapt. Real finished 11th in the league phase and were forced to face Manchester City in the playoff round, who they knocked out 6-3 on aggregate.
This year's Manchester City team is a far cry from their past teams, but Real still dispatched them quite comfortably. As usual, they're peaking at the right time, but if there's one team they did not want to see in this round, it's Atletico. Real hasn't beaten them in a La Liga match since 2022, albeit most of those games ended up as draws. Atletico have only lost once since the end of October and are firmly in the race with Real and Barcelona for the La Liga title.
Julian Alvarez is in great form, having scored four goals in his last five games. He'll be joined in attack by Atletico legend Antoine Griezmann. Aside from those two, the aim for the rest of the team will be simple: run and defend. This Atletico team isn't the defensive stalwart that the teams of the past were, but we've seen Diego Simeone resort to his trademark tactics when necessary, and I have a feeling we'll see that here.
Jude Bellingham being suspended for the first leg is a colossal loss for Real. Not only is he a massive attacking threat, he does all the dirty work in a team that has two forwards (Mbappe and Vinicius Jr.) who rarely press from the front. My head is telling me to pick Atletico, but there's just something special about Real in the Champions League. Outside of a two-year hiatus in 2019 and 2020, they've made it to at least the semi-final every year since 2011, and against my better judgment, I'm going to pick them to do it again.
Prediction: Real Madrid
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
The lowest-profile tie on paper will be between Villa and Brugge. Brugge upset Atalanta after scoring a controversial late penalty in the first leg and brilliantly playing on the counterattack in the second leg. Villa was the last team to make it directly through to the round of 16, but it has to be said that bar Bayern Munich, their schedule during the league phase wasn't too difficult.
These two sides had already played each other during the league phase, and Brugge came out on top in a scrappy 1-0 win. Brugge only scored seven goals in eight league phase matches but scored five in two against Atalanta. It's difficult to get a good read on them, but playing at home first could be a good thing for them to set the tone.
Villa needs to win this tie. They're in 10th place in the English Premier League, and just dedicated loads of money on wages and transfer fees this January, presumably to try and win one of the cup competitions, as it looks unlikely that they'll make the top four in the Premier League. Marco Asensio, Marcus Rashford, and Donyell Malen have been brought in to reinvigorate a forward line that lost super sub Jhon Duran to Al-Nassr. Villa has to go all-out in the cups, which is why I believe they'll go through, but it won't be a cakewalk.
Prediction: Aston Villa
Liverpool vs PSG
Even though there are quite a few phenomenal watches in this round, none of them are as exciting on paper as this matchup between Liverpool and PSG. Liverpool have been by far the best team in England, and PSG are currently on an unstoppable run of form. Liverpool were a perfect 7-0-0 in the league phase before resting their starters in the final game, including victories against Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, and AC Milan.
PSG struggled during the opening stages of the league phase, and this made it so they had to play in the playoff round, where they dispatched Brest 10-0(!) on aggregate. It took them a while to start clicking, but they've arrived. They're unbeaten since a loss to Bayern in November and are scoring goals for fun. They're a joy to watch in full flow; Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Desire Doue all play crucial roles in the attack, with Dembele, in particular, playing the best he ever has. Still, it should be taken with a pinch of salt; they're playing against teams with far smaller budgets and talent pools in the French league.
Liverpool has wrapped up the English league title, and now they'll aim for a historic Premier League and Champions League double in Arne Slot's first season. There's no reason to believe they can't pull it off; in fact, they were the betting favorites after the league phase. Mohamed Salah is the front runner for the Ballon d'Or; he's directly contributed to 42 of Liverpool's 66 goals scored in the Premier League, the most out of any player in Europe. The question for Liverpool will be if their other forwards can step up.
PSG have the more technical midfield, namely Joao Neves and Vitinha, and a manager who preaches control, so it would be safe to assume they'll try to control more possession in this tie. The concern for PSG will be if they can stand up to Liverpool's pace and physicality. Ryan Gravenberch, Virgil Van Dijk, and Ibrahima Konate are all physical specimens that PSG aren't used to facing.
PSG is the people's pick. They're in incredible form and are fun to watch, yet I can't help but think there's a bit of wishful thinking going on. PSG could very well win the first leg, but the second leg being at Anfield is a massive advantage for Liverpool. It's a shame that one of these two teams will be knocked out so soon, but give me Liverpool in what should be a great tie.
Prediction: Liverpool
I can't wait to see where I'm wrong, as the Champions League always holds surprises in store. Aside from Inter Milan and Barcelona, it wouldn't shock me to see any of the teams I picked get knocked out. The jury is still out on this new format, but this round of 16 looks incredibly promising.
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