It feels like several lifetimes ago by now, but Super Bowl 53 was not the last time the Patriots drew a Los Angeles Rams matchup. That would've been in the 2020 COVID season, a Thursday Night game just days after dismantling the Chargers in the same building, where a post-COVID and shoulder injury-stricken Cam Newton was taken to the woodshed by a defense a year out from winning it all (also in the same building). A handful of years later, even outside of the apparent Matt Stafford deal, this isn't that 2021 Rams team. Six assistant coaches from that team have moved on to become head coaches or coordinators elsewhere (most notably Kevin O'Connell, Raheem Morris, and Ejiro Evero). Aaron Donald, arguably the second-best player of the 21st century, has called it a career, and several other key cogs such as Andrew Withworth, Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr., Leonard Floyd, and Sebastian Joseph-Day are all long gone or retired.
Present day, the Rams sit at 4-5 after a stunning loss on Monday Night Football vs. Miami, and their chances of a second consecutive postseason berth in the NFC are fading fast. They've gotten pieces on the offensive front just as they've lost them in recent weeks, and not helping things offensively is the fact that Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have each missed close to/over half the Rams games so far. I think this Rams team is better than what these bulk statistics would indicate, but this is not a team in a position to afford losses with the Arizona Cardinals up two games in the NFC West, in addition to the 49ers getting ready to make a surge with Christian McCaffrey back.
As for the Patriots, the vibes this week are pretty good after beating the Bears. We got the news that Christian Barmore not only got his first practice of the year in but that, according to Jerod Mayo on Friday morning, there's "a chance" he plays on Sunday. Even as he got an off day Friday simply because he's not too far removed from being on blood thinners, the fact that Mayo felt confident enough to say that, and for the team to list him as questionable, not doubtful, is a gigantic headline. So, with this defense potentially inserting Barmore, Kyle Dugger, and newcomer Yannick Ngakoue into this lineup all at once, can the Patriots pull off yet another upset against their multiple-time Super Bowl foe?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, November 17
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Adam Amin and Mark Sanchez on the call)
Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, (Hopefully) Grey Pants
Los Angeles Rams Team Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 20.6 (20th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.1 (22nd)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 328.7 Yards (17th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 234.6 Yards Per (8th) and 94.1 Yards Per (26th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 347.1 Yards (22nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 219.6 Yards Per (22nd) and 127.6 Yards Per (19th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 34.6% (25th) and 37.3% (14th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 46.9% (30th) and 51.6% (12th)
Penalties: 50 (28th)
Penalty Yardage: 423 Yards (23rd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Rams: Rob Havenstein (OT), Neville Gallimore (IDL), Charles Woods (CB) (OT Jos Noteboom officially listed as Doubtful)
Patriots: N/A
Los Angeles Rams
Defense
Coming out of their bye week about a month ago, this Rams defense has been getting after it as much as any team in the league, and a wide majority of that falls onto their exciting young defensive line. Replacing Aaron Donald isn't an obtainable goal. Still, this team has a good group of guys that can get after it at the line of scrimmage, none more so than DROY favorite and Gaffney Scouting™ Legend (2024 EDGE No. 1/Defender No. 2) Jared Verse. The Florida State product has been as advertised and then some. His elite get-off ability, motor, and play strength have translated seamlessly, and he's sneakily having one of the best rookie seasons for a defender in years, even if the sack numbers don't indicate it.
As good as Verse is right now, the Rams front isn't just a one-man show. For the last few years, the Rams have quietly been adding quality guys to their defensive front through the draft, and it shows in team sack leaders Kobie Turner and Byron Young, as well as Michael Hoecht and rookie Braden Fiske, also out of Florida State. Those five guys have been the lifeblood of this Rams defense in recent weeks, and if they're not getting home for sacks, they're making life as difficult as humanly possible for opposing QBs in the pocket regardless. Jerod Mayo was absolutely correct when he said this group is one of the best DL's the Patriots will face this year. I'll go further and say they'd be the best if they didn't just play the Texans about a month ago.
Now, there are two areas where the Rams are very weak. One is tackling, which PFF has them graded 26th in the league defensively. You saw some of that on Monday Night Football with Jonnu Smith's almost-touchdown (I hate you, J*sh McDan*els). The other thing, which Taylor Kyles pointed out on Twitter, is allowing things underneath in the passing game, which the Dolphins also took advantage of to great effect. Also, I wouldn't expect any "explosive runs," per se, but this Rams team has been on the hook for allowing many "sucsessful runs".
Offense
The OL of this Rams unit got taken to school by the Dolphins pass rush down their two best pass rushers in Week 10, and things won't get much better for them with starting tackles Rob Havenstein and Joe Noteboom almost certainly out this week. Which is bad, but not as bad as knowing Stafford coming into this weekend, has been pressured at minimum 15 times in three of his last five games, and his previous two with 15 pressures and a combined pressure rate of over 32 percent. Yeah...not great facing a team that put up nine sacks against a bad offensive line a week ago.
To his credit, Matt Stafford has been pretty good for the most part with all the revolving parts around him. However, the one thing that's hurt him and this LA squad is that he's thrown a pick in all but two games this year. Those add up, especially when four of the Rams' five losses in 2024 are by one possession. Also not helping is Kyren Williams, a fantasy league winner for some a year ago, who did not have the year many would've hoped for. Despite starting the season with eight scores in the opening seven games of this season, most of his numbers are down from a year ago, and he's dead last in rushing yards over expected among RBs with > 50 carries at negative 71. I would personally chalk that up to the revolving door upfront that the Rams have had, but perhaps not this week; I think he could be in for a solid end-of-the-year run if they can get healthy.
Now for the big question: How do the Patriots defend Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua? Over the last two years, many teams have tried and failed, and I can't say I blame the league. Those two, in only a handful of games, if you think about it, have been one of the best complementary receiver duos in the NFL. If you can contain one of them, you probably are leaving yourself open with the other. Seattle and Minnesota can tell you about that all too well. Granted, I think the Patriots are in a better position than most to contend with them, but more on that here in a second.
New England Patriots
Defense
Much to my surprise, a week ago, the Patriots' defensive backs put all three of the Bears' top receivers, plus Cole Kmet, in the Steiner Recliner, aka 104 combined yards on 13 receptions. Even with Caleb Williams's indecision, this group had a ton of great reps on tape, but things aren't going to get much easier this week. I don't think you'll get any set traveling matchups in this one if the Dolphins game plan is anything to consider, but Christian Gonzalez is as good of a Nacua traveler as Mayo and Covington could hope for. They need someone fluid in motion to keep up with him because Sean McVay could break out something like this and make any Gonzalez matchup moot.
Sean McVay is not Shane Waldron, and Matt Stafford isn't Present Day Caleb Williams. These DBs cannot allow Nacua and Kupp to pick them apart underneath and then out-breaking stuff. Never mind the pre-snap motion they bring to the table as well. Another thing I'm interested in seeing is how much we'll get of Jonathan Jones lined up at safety in this one. New England floating corners deep isn't anything new these last two seasons, but I could think of worse ways to get a good deep cover guy out there while also opening up some playing time at the corner for a guy like Alex Austin, who officially practiced every single day this week and is questionable for tomorrow.
Although the Rams' offensive line is in shambles, much like the Bears, I would not expect to see the Patriots have a repeat of their nine-sack day in Chicago. Surely, they'll get to Stafford a few times and crank up the heat, but he won't get caught wasting time in the pocket patting the ball and looking off open reads like Caleb Williams was a week ago. The one element that wasn't there last week but likely will be this week is Yannick Ngakoue. Believe it or not, he does have ties to someone on this staff, OLB coach Drew Wilkins, who was on Baltimore's staff when Ngakoue was there in 2020. Earlier this week, he highlighted his burst off the line and his patented cross chop, which helped him get many of his 70.5 career sacks. I can't say how much we see of him tomorrow, but he can be a plus-contributor once he's a full go as a pass rush specialist.
Also, literally anything this team could get from Christian Barmore this week, should he play, would be crazy. He'd almost certainly only get a handful of snaps, but the fact we're talking about him playing not even a full four months after his blood clots were first discovered is remarkable. My educated guess is they'll probably hold him out until after the bye, but I've been wrong before.
Offense
So, you say the Rams have an elite front but have the cruel affliction that they give up a lot of underneath stuff? Well, I don't want to say the passing gameplan is too obvious, but...yeah. If the Rams and DC Chris Shula commit to these two high shells and prevent the big play, Alex Van Pelt has got to prioritize a lot of quick developing stuff and screens in this early script, which, in fairness, we saw him break out a wild screen play in the second quarter of the Bears game on that initial touchdown drive, but the quicker they can open things up down the seems, I wouldn't be super afraid of attacking this Rams secondary vertically...assuming the protection can hold up of course. Also, in fairness, the OL did pretty well against a slightly above-average Bears front in pass pro.
While Devon Achane was a complete nonfactor vs. this Rams squad on 12 carries, we have to come back to the Rams' tackling woes and add that Rhamondre Stevenson is one of 13 running backs averaging 3.5 yards after contact per carry this season. If he can make guys miss, or even better, have the Rams do the work for him with bad fundamentals, that'd be massive to keep the heat off of Maye. Keep this fact in mind: the Patriots are 3-1 this year when Stevenson gets at least 20 carries, and the lone loss was against Seattle, where he averaged nearly four yards a pop. He'll likely have the same OL combo as he did in Chicago, which would help, given the instability upfront this year.
Now, let's talk pass catchers. Can we expect to see Kendrick Bourne after a zero-snap game a week ago? According to Jerod Mayo, yes. I was ultimately shocked that he didn't play, given that I liked what I was beginning to see with him and Maye in that Tennessee game, and again, if the quick game is the plan (which it should be), Bourne is a guy you want out there. As much as I'd like to see Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker get increased roles, their best bet in a game like this is Boutte, Bourne, and Douglas as your primary wideouts. Give Maye guys he's the most comfortable with, and good things should happen. Hopefully, there are good picks this week, but I'm excited to see how the rookie handles the pressure from the Rams.
Betting Info
Points Spread: LAR -4.5 (-110) | NE +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LAR (-198) | NE (+164)
Over/Under: O 43.5 (-108) | U 43.5 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, November 16
This is as tough a betting game involving the Patriots all year. My gut is to always lean toward the East Coast team in these East vs. West 1:00 EST games, but at the same time, this Rams team is fighting for their season and has won by at least five points all but once this year with just one road game cover to their credit in four tries. I don't know how much I love these picks, and it wouldn't shock me if they age badly, but Patriots both ways and the under.
Prediction
The biggest thing that separates Seattle from the Rams in these early East Coast games is that Sean McVay's squad has not had much recent success in them. They've only won two of seven in the last three seasons: a one-point win against a Giants team starting Tyrod Taylor that left four fourth-quarter points on the board and an OT win in Indianapolis, where Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending shoulder injury a year ago.
The Rams are undoubtedly the better team, have a better coaching staff, and have more to lose here, but schematically, I think this game favors the Patriots, and that was before the injuries to the Rams two tackles. For how much of a dumpster fire the Bears were a week ago, this team deserves a bit of trust in this spot at home. While it won't be easy, the Patriots should come out of this one with two straight wins before the annual Miami loss.
Final Score: New England Patriots 23, Los Angeles Rams 20
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