Coming into the 2024 season, the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation was supposed to be a strength. 103 games into the season, it has been anything but that. Over 100 games into the season, the Giants will finally have something close to the starting rotation they envisioned after Robbie Ray made his season debut Wednesday night.
When the season started, it was straightforward to pencil in the second-half rotation looking something like Logan Webb, Blake Snell, Ray, Alex Cobb, and Kyle Harrison/Jordan Hicks would be the rotation in the second half.
However, baseball never worked out how anyone expected, which was the case for the Giants. Even though all those pitchers are in the mix for starts in the second half, the way they got there wasn't how everyone expected.
After Ray's debut on Wednesday, those six have combined for just 68 starts (Webb 21), (Hicks 20), (Harrison 17), (Snell 9) and (Ray 1) and have an underwhelming 4.00 ERA.
With the Giants sitting at 49-54 and 4.5 games out of an NL Wild Card spot, one of the biggest questions going forward will be how President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi and Manager Bob Melvin handle the rotation with seven possible options.
Logan Webb
The undisputed ace of the staff and franchise cornerstone is amid his fourth straight great season for the Giants.
His ERA is 3.59 after struggling in his last two starts. That number is misleading and not indicative of how he pitched this year, as his ERA has been hovering around high twos and low threes for nearly the entire season. Webb's fielding independent pitching (FIP) also suggests better luck will start coming his way at 2.92.
Few in baseball are better at limiting the long ball than Webb, as his career-low 0.48 HR/9 rate ranks third among qualified pitchers.
Webb's only allowed seven homers on the season and only allowed four in his first 15 starts. The four hitters to take him deep during that time were Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, and Yordan Alvarez, all of whom are among the most feared hitters in the game.
Blake Snell
The reigning NL Cy Young winner and the Giants prized off-season acquisition got off to a very underwhelming start with the orange and black.
Snell's tenure as a Giant could not have started more disappointingly. He posted a 9.51 ERA in his first six starts and had three separate stints on the IL. Since his return on July 9, he looks more like the pitcher who has won two Cy Youngs with a 1.00 in his last three starts.
Snell is the X factor for the rotation and the whole team. If he can continue pitching like he has since his return, he and Webb would form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.
Robbie Ray
The Giants traded for Ray this offseason, knowing that he would miss a good portion of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Ray made just one start with the Seattle Mariners in 2023, but his last two full seasons were very good.
He combined for a 3.27 ERA across 2021 and 2022 with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, including an AL Cy Young award in 2021 with the Blue Jays.
Ray made his season debut on Wednesday against the Dodgers, which was everything the Giants could've hoped for and then some. He pitched five hitless innings and only gave up one run in the first inning.
It’s unrealistic to expect hitless performances every time Ray pitches, but if he can return to how he pitched in 2021 and 2022, the Giants will love their chances at making the playoffs.
Alex Cobb
Cobb has spent the last three seasons with the Giants but has yet to pitch this year due to injury. In his first two seasons in the Bay Area, Cobb has been the team's most reliable starter outside of Webb with a 3.80 ERA and 3.41 FIP.
Cobb has pitched in five rehab games this season and has a 2.76 ERA in 16.1 innings. His last rehab start was the most encouraging of the five, as he pitched five scoreless innings for the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats against the Albuquerque Isotopes.
Kyle Harrison
The most anticipated left-handed pitcher in the Giants organization since Madison Bumgarner made his long-awaited debut last fall and showed enough promise to land a spot in the rotation to open the season.
Like any young pitcher not named Paul Skenes, Harrison's season has been filled with ups and downs. Harrison has a 2.70 ERA in his last four starts, while his ERA in his five starts prior was 5.88. He is currently at 91 innings and has never pitched more than 113 in a season.
Even with his ups and downs, Harrison sports a respectable 3.86 ERA.
Jordan Hicks
When the Giants signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year, $44M contract this offseason, they were taking a risk.
Not in the player, as Hicks has been known as a reliable bullpen arm for the duration of his career, but rather in the role he would be used in as a starter. Hicks had only made eight starts out of his 212 major league appearances.
The early return looked great for the Giants initially, as Hicks posted a 2.33 over his first 11 starts while going five innings or more in all but one of those starts. Since then, things have not been great for Hicks, as he has a 6.42 ERA in his last nine starts and has only reached five innings four times.
The overall numbers are still respectable, with a 4.01 ERA. However, it is clear Hicks is trending in the wrong direction and lacks the effectiveness that he did early on in the season.
Hayden Birdsong
Birdsong has the fewest MLB starts of the other options, with just five. However, the 22-year-old 2022 sixth-round draft pick has showcased electric stuff in his short stint with the Giants before getting optioned to single-A on Monday.
In his five starts, Birdsong has 30 strikeouts in 25.1 innings and has a 3.55 ERA. The only cause for concern is that he has been homer-prone with four allowed. His last start before getting sent down was quickly the best of his short career as he racked up 12 strikeouts at Coors Field against a Rockies that roughed up Webb a night earlier.
With 12 strikeouts, Birdsong became the third Giants pitcher in the last 40 years to reach that number before turning 23, joining franchise legends Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. He will likely be called up shortly, as he is far too promising to be sent down for the long term.
What Should They Do?
If the Giants want the best chance to make the playoffs while maintaining a healthy staff, the best decision would likely be to employ a six-man rotation.
In this scenario, Birdsong gets recalled while Hicks moves to the bullpen. If the Giants were to do this, it would give the veterans who have battled injuries (Snell, Ray, and Cobb) more time to rest between starts while also managing the inning totals for the young guys (Birdsong and Harrison).
While it could hurt the team to lose out on potential Webb starts, they could always move him up if they have a day off so he can pitch every five days like he would if he were on regular rest. Even though the Giants face the tall task of making the playoffs for just the second time in eight seasons, they have the rotation options in place to make a late-season push.
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