The Buccaneers are back playing on Sunday after suffering a heartbreaking loss against the Falcons last Thursday. It was a gut-wrenching overtime defeat that has put a sour taste in many fans and players' mouths. Kirk Cousins led the Falcons back on the game's final drive, and Younghoe Koo made a 52-yard field goal as time expired to send the game into overtime. The Falcons won the toss in overtime and elected to receive the ball. Then, on the fourth play of overtime, Kirk Cousins found KhaDarel Hodge, and he took it forty-five yards to the endzone to end the game. The Buccaneers would fall 36-30, moving them second in the NFC South division and 0-1 on divisional matchups.
This week, they're back on the road against another division rival. The New Orleans Saints started the year red hot, winning their first two games in dominating fashion. In their opening two games, the Saints scored forty-seven points against the Panthers and forty-four points against the Cowboys. They accomplished this while also holding both teams to under twenty points. Their next three games were a different story. The Saints would lose their next three games as reality set in for the offense. The offense has averaged 16.3 points in the last three games, and their defense has given up twenty-six points in each of the previous two games. Both teams are facing lulls, and this game will help put one of these teams back on track and the other team into a pit of despair.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Start Time: 1 P.M Eastern
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Stadium: Caesars Superdome
TV Info: Fox (Adam Amin and Greg Olsen on the Call)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Uniform Info: White Jersey, White Pants
New Orleans Saints Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 28.0 (4th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2 (8th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 323.2 Yards Per (17th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 196 Yards Per (21st) and 127.2 Yards Per (10th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 356.2 Yards Per (23rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 251.2 Yards Per (26th) and 105 Yards Per (7th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50.88% (2nd) and 37.10% (17th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 76.47% (1st) and 25% (1st)
Penalties: 29 (12th)
Penalty Yardage: 290 Yards (23rd)
Players Ruled Out Before Thursday
Saints: Derek Carr, Kendre Miller, Shane Lemieux, Erik McCoy, Rejzohn Wright, Nephi Sewell, Ryan Ramczyk, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Justin Herron
Buccaneers: Earnest Brown IV, Cody Thompson, Markees Watts, SirVocea Dennis, Evan Deckers, Bryce Hall, Rakim Jarrett, Silas Dzansi, Sua Opeta
New Orleans Saints
Defense
The Saint's defense has been up and down this year. They looked dominant in their first three games but weak in the last couple of games. The Saints averaged 14.6 points allowed per game through three weeks, but that's nearly doubled over the previous two weeks. Their interior defensive line has looked strong. Second-year defensive tackle Bryan Bresee leads the team in sacks with four. He has been dominant in the middle, and many teams have had to double-team him. Bresee is double-teamed 62.3% of the time, fourth-most in the NFL. The Saint's second leader in sacks may surprise you. With 3.5 sacks on the season, cornerback Alontae Taylor is second on the team in sacks. Taylor also leads the team in tackles for loss with six. The Saints love to blitz Taylor from the nickelback position. He's also a very good defender in coverage and has forced four pass deflections on the season.
The Saints have strong corners that will be tough to match up against. On one end, they have veteran and perennial pro bowler Marshon Lattimore, who still performs at a high level. Through six games, Lattimore has been targeted only nine times. I expect him to get more targets this weekend, as he'll likely be up against Mike Evans. He and Mike Evans have a massive rivalry, and it should be fun to see those two match up again on Sunday. Across from Lattimore is Paulson Adebo. Adebo has been lighting up the stat book this season. Adebo leads the team in tackles, pass deflections, and interceptions. Adebo flies all over the field and creates a lot of plays. Unfortunately, sometimes he makes a lot of plays for the other team. Adebo has struggled against the deep ball this season, and many teams have taken advantage of that lately. He has also been targeted fifty-two times this year, the most on the team by thirteen. The Saints will need more good plays than bad from Adebo this Sunday if they want to get back in the win column.
Offense
New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak received high praise after the Saint's first two games. The Saints ran for nearly 200 yards against the Panthers and Cowboys but have been averaging less than 100 yards since then. Derek Carr also started the year hot, with five touchdowns in the first two games. Since then, he's only passed for four and has thrown three interceptions. Carr will also be unavailable for this game as he suffered an oblique tear. In his place will be rookie Spencer Rattler. Rattler was New Orleans' fifth-round choice in this past year's draft. He spent his final two years of college at South Carolina, throwing for over 6,000 yards in two seasons. During the summer, many reports were raving about Spencer Rattler. He found an early chemistry with Chris Olave and was said to be pushing for the starter spot. Saints fans will pray that these reports are accurate and that the Olave chemistry still holds. Olave will be a massive part of this offense, and if Rattler can find him early and often, the Saints might be just fine on offense.
Alvin Kamara's success will be critical to the Saints' offense. Kamara is still the do-it-all back for the Saints, and he'll need to carry this offense to help the rookie quarterback. During the year, Kamara already has over 600 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns. He has been outstanding in some games and has shown shades of his prime self. Against Dallas this year, Kamara had 180 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. He was unstoppable in that game, but like the entire Saints team, he has struggled lately. Last week against the Chiefs, Kamara was held to only 26 rushing yards. The Saints still rank in the top ten for rushing yards, but with them struggling lately and playing an elite run defense in Tampa Bay, it doesn't look too good for the Saints.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
Atlanta exploited the Buccaneers' defense last Thursday. Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards, setting a franchise record for passing yards in a game. This is simply unacceptable, and if they let a young rookie have a great game, it could mean wraps for the entire season. The Saints are filled with weapons, and the Bucs must stop them. First off, the Bucs will need to hold off Alvin Kamara. I think the Bucs will do well holding him, as they've done well stopping running backs this season. This will especially be the case with Vita Vea in the middle and Calijah Kancey potentially returning. As for the most significant threat, it'll be the Saints receivers. Chris Olave is a severe threat and could be in for a bigger day if the rumors about him and Rattler's chemistry are true. Then there's Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed is one of the most dangerous players in the league because of his speed. Shaheed has over 300 receiving yards this season, averaging 17.8 yards per reception. You cannot let Shaheed get behind you because he will go the distance.
The Buc's defense is still riddled with injuries, but hopefully, they will get two key pieces back this week. Calijah Kancey has missed the entire season but has been a full go in practice this week. Kancey flew onto the scene as a rookie last year, recording four sacks and ten tackles for loss. He finished tenth in Rookie of the Year voting and was supposed to be a key contributor next to Vita Vea this season. Having Kancey back will be huge for the Bucs pass attack and stopping Alvin Kamara. Star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was back practicing this week and could see action this weekend. He hasn't played since the season opener and has been missed in pass coverage. His potential return, along with Kancey, will be crucial to the outcome of this game.
Offense
The Buccaneers offense has been fantastic at getting the ball into the endzone this season. They're averaging 25.4 points per game, the ninth-best in the NFL. They accomplish this even though they're only 19th in total yards. They've put up thirty points in their last two games, but the defense let them down last week. The undoubted start of the offense is Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is second in the NFL in passing touchdowns and has only thrown two interceptions. The Bucs offense runs through Baker, and if he does well, the Bucs do well. I expect the Bucs and Mayfield to continue to dominate the passing game by airing it out against the Saints. The main heal to the Buc's success at times on offense is their lack of protection. Mayfield has been sacked the fourth most in the entire league, mainly due to the absence of Luke Goedeke. Goedeke has been suffering a concussion, but there's a possibility that he'll return for this game. This would be a massive plus for the Bucs and could explode this passing attack to even bigger heights.
The rushing game is still slowly improving every week. Rachaad White led the way for the Bucs last week with seventy-two rushing yards on ten carries against the Falcons. He started the season off barely averaging two yards per carry but has averaged over six yards a carry in the past two weeks. The Bucs are still splitting White's carries with Bucky Irving, who continues to show off his explosiveness. Irving had nine carries for forty-four yards rushing against Atlanta but had a critical fumble late in the game. Irving is still a rookie and will make rookie mistakes from time to time, but overall, the future is bright for him. White also made his presence known in the passing game. He caught three passes for fifty-six yards. If White continues his streak of great play, he will be a big problem for the Saints.
Betting Info
Points Spread: TB -3 (-118) | NO +3 (+102)
Moneyline: TB (-166) | NO (+140)
Over/Under: O 41 (-112) | U 41 (-108)
Lines Via DraftKings as of Thursday, October 10th
The Bucs are favored by a field goal in this matchup, but I would pick them to win more than that. After losing that heartbreaker last week, the Bucs have a chip on their shoulder, and I think they'll come into this one angry. I will also pick the Bucs in my moneyline pick, although I don't like the odds. Picking New Orleans could be a sneaky good pick if they can find the same offensive magic they had to start the season. Likely, they won't find that spark, but the Buccaneers' defense has struggled. I like the over in this game due to the high explosiveness of the Bucs offense and the potential of the Saints putting up big points. Both these teams are in the top ten for scoring, and though New Orleans has struggled to put up points lately, I think both teams will combine for more than 41.
Prediction
I have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bouncing back this weekend and winning their first divisional game of the season. The Saints are struggling and will be breaking in a rookie quarterback. The Bucs will be able to pressure Rattler, throwing him off his game. Rattler is also interception-prone, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tossed a couple of interceptions in this one. It'll be loud in the Superdome, but as soon as Mayfield throws his first touchdown pass, the noise will quiet down, and the Bucs will soar past the Saints. The Buccaneers are also returning a lot of key talent from injury this week. All of this adds to bad news for the Saints, and they'll take their fourth consecutive loss of the season.
Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Atlanta Falcons 20
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