Vibes are high in New England after a big road win in Cincinnati as an 8.5-point dog, and the beat goes on into Week 2 as the Patriots host the also 1-0 Seattle Seahawks. While this is a fun time to reflect on Super Bowl 49 with Malcolm Butler and some other members of that 2014 back in town, Seattle is as much in a new era as the Patriots are. Pete Carroll has finally hung up the headset and thrown out the final pack of gum, as former Ravens' standout defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald was tabbed as his replacement earlier this year.
Even with an all-new staff, many of the same faces that've been in Seattle for the last several years remain. Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett still are your franchise faces, although the passing attack for Seattle isn't on the best of starts this year. Running back Kenneth Walker and the defense were the keys to victory for the 12s last weekend, and they hope that their defense is a traveling one, making the six-plus hour flight out east for a 1:00 EST kick. So, which new Head Coach will walk out of Gillette Stadium 2-0?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 15
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: Home Blues with Silver Pants
Seahawks Statistical Rankings (2024 Week 1)
Points Per Game: 26 (13th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20 (12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 304 Yards (15th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 158 Yards Per (20th) and 146 Yards Per (9th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 231 Yards (6th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 132 Yards Per (4th) and 99 Yards Per (12th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 33% (18th) and 27.8% (10th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 0% (10th) and 25% (11th)
Penalties: 6 (t-19th)
Penalty Yardage: 41 Yards (23rd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Seahawks: N/A
Patriots: N/A
[As of Friday at 12:30 EST]
Seattle Seahawks
Defense
Macdonald, a born Boston native with extremely loose Patriots ties due to working under Dean Pees for several years with the Ravens, has been one of the more revered defensive minds in recent memory for good reason. Some key staples of what he likes to do are roll out in two-high safety looks but use that as a bluff to run some exotic zone looks, especially of the Cover-3 variety. Additionally, he loves to send a lot of late pressure with certain players dropping back off the line, and MikeMac will even break out some of the amoeba defense looks that Brian Flores loved to do in Super Bowl 53. ThinkingFootball on YouTube has an excellent breakdown of this with some 2023 Ravens examples, but Macdonald is legit; easily my favorite (traditional) coaching hire of this last cycle.
While Macdonald doesn't have guys like Kyle Hamilton, Nnamdi Madubuike, Roquan Smith, or Geno Stone to play around with anymore, Seattle's defensive personnel has some legit names at its disposal. Along with 10-year vet Leonard Williams up front, two guys you should be watching are rookie IDL Byron Murphy and third-year edge rusher Boye Mafe. Starting with the latter, Mafe is coming into this week off of a monster outing against the Broncos, one of five players across the league to generate seven or more pressures in Week 1. His burst off the line, ability to win with outside and inside moves, and overall athleticism jumped off the tape a week ago, and if the Patriots (mainly Chuks Okorafor) had trouble with Trey Hendrickson last Sunday, the U. of Minnesota product has the opportunity to take over this game early.
Now, onto University of Texas standout Byron Murphy: No. 12 on my 2024 Top 50 Draft big board and outright top defensive player. He was solid in his debut, with little statistical production, but watching his snaps back, you see that the Broncos made it a point to get extra bodies on him early, often no matter where he was lined up. This play right here was by far and away the standout of the snaps I saw. Watch No. 91 on your program (lined up over the right guard), get double-teamed to start this play, and then end up with the tackle.
Superhuman. For context, Murphy is only 6'0, has a few hairs over 300 lbs, and has only a 77-inch wingspan (14th percentile). Once this kid figures it all out, he'll be a bonafide game wrecker in short order. Hopefully, for the Patriots' sake, that isn't this weekend.
Seattle also boasts some great names in the secondary, like Devon Witherspoon, 'Riq Woolen, and Julian Love, but Seattle's front seven will be their tone-setters all season. Likely without one of their top pass rushers, Uchenna Nwosu, for the second week in a row, this is still an excellent defense with an even better defensive coaching staff. Assuming their run defense woes of 2023 are in the past, and Week 1 is more indicative of what to expect, the Patriots' offense is in for a dogfight.
Offense
The defensive changes in Seattle are the standout headline in 2024, but there's also a new offense with Ryan Grubb in the building. The Iowa native is not a stranger to Washington-based football fans. He coordinated a highly successful University of Washington offense these last two years and was presumed to join Kalen DeBoer at Alabama before MikeMac gave him a call.
I don't think much needs to be said about this skill group, which consists of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, and Kenneth Walker, one of the league's better core five groups. Then there's Geno Smith, who's done an admirable job being the guy to replace Russell Wilson but dipped in production in 2023 and didn't have a standout season opener by any means (he threw a brutal opening play pick when he had DK Metcalf open on the opposite side). While he mostly settled in once things got going, Seattle's win over Denver was much more about the ground attack.
Kenneth Walker, given a ton of light boxes to work with on the other side of the ball, shredded the Broncos defensive front for a hair over five yards per carry and a score. It was a very impressive outing on all fronts; Walker frequently fought for extra yards and did a great job at avoiding tackles, notably on his touchdown run. Here's the big kicker, however: Walker has missed two straight practices, and Seattle is flying out today, not tomorrow; that's a gigantic loss for Seattle coming into this game should he be out, notably more so than Tee Higgins was to Cincinnati. Should that be the case, Zach Charbonnet will lead things out of the backfield for the 'Hawks. Only eight carries for the UCLA product, but he averaged 4.3 a carry on 108 handoffs a season ago.
Now, circling back to new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb, here are some of the trends and notes from the Broncos game to keep in mind: They ran motion on nearly 80% of their snaps and especially liked to get tight end Noah Fant in motion as a run blocker, which spoiler; worked out great for them. Tyler Lockett was the only Seattle player to get more than four pass targets. Additionally, Geno Smith was super quick to get the ball out in the passing game and only threw four passes between the left sideline and left hash the entire game (We call that the Pat Surtain effect, which bodes well for Christian Gonzalez), and more so, got the ball out super quickly (2.54 time to throw).
On a final note, watch for Seattle's right tackle spot on Sunday. Their primary starter, Abe Lucas, started the year on PUP, and his backup, George Fant, is almost certainly not playing this week. That's absolutely a weakness the Patriots should exploit from the start.
New England Patriots
Defense
This Patriots' secondary came into the year with high expectations and did not disappoint in the Queen City. Well, they get another great challenge with these top three Seattle wideouts, and I think they match up very well from a size standpoint. Starting with Metcalf, he ran 25 routes vs Denver, and Pat Surtain left his side only twice, resulting in a three catch on four target day for 29 yards, all on underneath stuff. That should be your exact game plan with Christian Gonzalez as well, but I will note this: There was a play about 10 minutes where it looks like Denver didn't communicate something late, and that put Surtain on an island with Metcalf running a deep post with no help over the top. If not for some pressure, this is probably six points on the board if Smith can get the throw off clean. Take a look for yourself (bottom of the screen).
If I'm Ryan Grubb or Geno Smith and see a defensive look to my liking, I think this would be worth coming back to with Metcalf. Now, onto the other two Seahawk wideouts; I believe the Patriots match up better with JSN and Lockett than Denver did, with Jonathan and Marcus Jones coming off of fantastic season openers themselves. Seeing both of those guys make gigantic drive-defining tackles as they did on that first third down stop and then that third-quarter fourth down stop is exactly what you're looking for to kick off a season.
One of the bigger reasons why the Patriots were as successful as they were vs. Cincinnati was the lack of missed tackles; only a small handful put them behind the Saints and Titans for the fewest in Week 1. The same can be said in the penalty department, with just two defensive and five total. That's a massive credit to this defensive staff led by Jerod Mayo, Demarcus Covington, Dont'a Hightower, and Mike Pellegrino, and something that Patriots fans should hope remains a positive trend the rest of the way.
Offense
While we don't need to really get into how good the Patriots' running game was again, there were absolutely things the Patriots could've done better offensively, and this would be a great time to shore up some of those areas. The first big one would be the overall pass protection, which didn't allow a single sack but allowed a league-high 48.3% pressure rate for Jacoby Brissett (14 total pressures, half of which were Trey Hendrickson). That isn't sustainable football, and with a team like the 49ers not too far out on the horizon, they need to fix things quickly.
Chuks Okorafor had an especially brutal outing before swiftly being benched in favor of Vederian Lowe. I imagine he'll get the starting nod this week for better or worse, with Michael Jordan again at left guard with Sidy Sow still hurt. As for rookie Layden Robinson, he didn't have a clean pass pro sheet, but there was a ton to like out of his entire day, even getting the vaunted Brian Baldinger breakdown treatment, along with "Muscle Tight End" (I swear on everything that's what they're calling him internally) Caedan Wallace. Those six OL looks will be fun to watch all season, but on a more important note, a cleaner pass pro outing against a Seattle pass rush touting Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe, and Leonard Williams is paramount.
This week, Patriots coaches have become quite aware that their top wideout options, Ja'Lynn Polk and Pop Douglas, had opportunities to get themselves open against Cincinnati, and they should frankly go out of their way this week to get both of those guys involved if possible. We know what Douglas can do with the ball in his hands, but I was very impressed with Polk's route-running technique matching up on the boundary with Cam Taylor-Britt.
As for some statistical trends I'd like to see improve, being better in the red zone offensively would be a hell of a way to start that. Brissett, AVP, and the Pats offense only scored one touchdown on four red zone drives, and field goals will only do you so much down the road. Additionally, their 40% third-down conversion rate was in the league's upper half in Week 1; It wouldn't hurt to move the chains a bit more, especially on home turf.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SEA -3.5 (-102) | NE +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: SEA (-175) | NE (+145)
Over/Under: O 38.5 (-110) | U 38.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 13
With Walker's status up in the air as Thursday turned into Friday, the spread and moneyline slightly tilted slightly in favor of New England, but again, only slightly. Starting with Seattle, this is only the fifth time since the beginning of 2022 they've been a favorite on the road, with a record of 1-2-1 in those four prior outings. Believe it or not, this is only the ninth time in that same span that the Patriots have been a home dog, touting a record of 1-6-1. Both of these teams' ATS records have also not been great since 2022 in non-conference outings, making this a tricky one to decide on when relying on trends.
Speaking for myself here, I like that extra half-point for New England in this spot, and for reasons you'll find out in a few moments, I would also feel good about them outright. I also like the over here, although you could easily talk me into the under here, especially if Kenneth Walker is out.
Prediction
This is a sneaky fun matchup this early in the season, given the new head coaching situations and the defensive power both teams possess. I could see Seattle coming into New England and taking their third straight win since Super Bowl 49, but my rule of thumb has been to lean with the East Coast home team playing a West Coast team in a 1:00 pm local kick. Even with a 12-5 record the last five years in such games (3-4 the previous two), I'll go with my gut and say the Seahawks do what the Cardinals did up in Buffalo last week: put up a great fight but ultimately come up a bit short. I like the defensive matchup for the Patriots once again, and if they can find ways to move the ball through the air with Brissett, they could win this one with some breathing room.
Final Score: New England Patriots 23, Seattle Seahawks 20
Main Image via
Comentários