We only have a week to go before the final leg of the AMA Pro Motocross tilt, and then right into a monster month of SMX and MXoN action. With that in mind, 2024 will soon be 2025, and while you shouldn't expect the barrage of moves in the 450 class you saw in 2022, there are still some anticipated moves, like Colt Nichols for sure going to HEP Suzuki for the rest of this year and next year, and potentially Christian Craig as well; and as always, there's a ton of 250 class news to get to. Of course, none of this is new information (save for one piece we'll get to), but re-catching up on things is never a bad idea.
Also, with SMX only about a month away, there are a few notable seeding battles to win and a situation at the bottom of the 450 top 20 standings, which could lead to an insane weekend at Ironman. More on that later, but for now, let's
New Look for Jorge Prado
Perhaps the oldest bit in the rumor mill, but the most interesting by a country mile. Jorge Prado, reigning MXGP Champion and currently second in the standings to Tim Gajser with six GPs left, is set for a full-time move to the States, and with Monster Energy Kawasaki on a three-year deal at that, which I believe David Vuillemin of all people, was the first person to confirm this back in March on Pulp.
The fascinating part is how much of a gamble this is for him. Prado has essentially ridden the KTM platform (depending on how you view the 'GP style GasGas bike, of course), dating back to when he was 12 years old, and will now have to balance learning a bike platform that's completely foreign to him (granted, I'd have to assume he got a chance to ride it before signing), learning a new team, let alone home, while continuing to get better from where he left off in Supercross last season.
It's hard not to give Prado a ton of credit here. He's been one of the best Motocross riders on the planet over the last half-decade, and no one would've realistically blamed him for being a career GP guy. We've seen guys make the jump and have a rough go of it; former American GP racer Thomas Covington immediately comes to mind. But adding in the bike switch element, there's a high risk/reward ratio here, but I think Prado can make this work on talent alone. It might not be a bad idea to temper expectations on him in year one with that in mind.
Also, it's unrelated to Prado, but keep tabs on Kay De Wolf, Lucas Coenen, and Sasha Coenen next year in the MX2 Championship. The two brothers (managed by Lucas Mirtl just like the Lawrence Bros. Yeah...small world) are for sure U.S. bound in '26, but all three making the jump is on the table.
Troy Lee Bowing Out of GasGas?
The man himself, Troy Lee, was in the news earlier this week because he bought back control of Troy Lee Designs, but that isn't the only newsworthy item related to him this year. With the expectation that the KTM Group will downsize the Husqvarna and GasGas operations in the States, multiple insiders, Weege being one of them, have mentioned that GasGas may become an in-house factory team without TLD involved.
That would have a ton of implications due to the obvious TLD gear brand deal, the outside sponsors who were there because of Troy Lee (think Sony Pictures and Puma, for example), and potential changes to the leadership structure, given that Troy's son Max is the team manager. It's not set in stone yet, but it sure seems like it's headed in that direction, and if we're catching wind of this now, it may already be a done deal.
250 Star Shakeup
The team dynamic with Bobby Regan's Star Yamaha outfit has remained fluid throughout the last several years, and 2025 will not buck that trend. We saw one of their '25 signings hop aboard early in Max Anstie, but they have some more names coming in to shake up their 250 operation. Joining up with Ansite, along with, of course, Haiden Deegan, Dax Bennick, and Nate Thrasher, who's signed a short-term extension according to Michael Lindsay, will be TLD/GasGas' Pierce Brown, who has had some consistency issues over the last couple of years, but is capable of putting up good results. The Anstie signing is a good one in my book for what should be pretty obvious reasons, but I don't hate bringing Brown aboard by any stretch, who'd benefit a ton from that YZ250 platform. Only time will tell on that front.
Outgoing on the 250 side of things are Nick Romano, Stilez Robertson, Jordon Smith, and potentially Enzo Lopes, who will end up missing the entire 2024 season after a great '23 with ClubMX. I could see them doing what ML brought up some time ago, though, and have the Brazilian on a Supercross-only deal. Since he ran for Team Brazil in the 2018 Motocross Des Nations, he's competed in just four AMA Pro Nationals, with lackluster results at that. Some guys are just specialists, and you can throw Lopes in that box.
As for two of the three sure losses, Smith and Robertson have been rumored to join Triumph (now expected to be a 250-only team again next year). I like the idea of Bobby Hewitt going back to "his guys" from when he headed Rockstar Husky, and based on how Swoll has done this year, it wouldn't be a stretch to say Robertson could have a similar year once he makes the jump. Also, I would like the Smith move just because it will get another vet in the building who has a ton of experience on just about every other bike. That's super valuable for a second-year team, even with year one being a success by just about every standard for Triumph.
No 450 Changes for Star (???)
While nothing is set in stone yet, I'd be stunned if the core of this 450-star team, Eli Tomac and Cooper Webb, aren't back, barring any retirement by the former. The main reason is, firstly: Why would they leave this team in particular at this stage of their careers? Second, no equal-level rides are open elsewhere, and there's no indication that either guy would want to switch.
The key here is Justin Cooper. He's technically on an expiring deal, but according to Weege, there are performance kickers in his current deal that would grant him a year option should he hit them. I can't say what those are, but either way, it sounds like he'll be back at Star regardless, according to Steve Matthes, and swapping over to O'Neal gear as well. Webb, meanwhile, will also be in FXR gear as of next year, according to Matthes.
The Word on Pro Circuit
Even midway through the summer, Pro Circuit's '25 lineup was mainly set, with Seth Hammaker and Cameron McAdoo signing extensions, Austin Forkner expected to be back once again after (yet) another injury-shortened year, and Levi Kitchen not going anywhere. Then you have Garrett Marchbanks returning a bit earlier than expected after his sudden split with ClubMX, which now brings up a dilemma for Mitch Payton.
They have two realistic options if they want to roll into 2025 with a six-rider team. One of which is already in-house, that being Ty Masterpool, who, according to Lindsay on the Vital forums, has an offer on the table from ClubMX and, to this point, doesn't have a contract on the table from Pro Circuit. The other option would be Kawasaki's top amateur option, Drew Adams, who, if you haven't heard, has been lighting it up at Loretta Lynn's this week. Thanks to a last to fourth charge in the opening Moto of 250 Pro Sports action, he's in the catbird seat to win that class later today (Friday) and has a commanding 1-1 lead in the Open Pro Sport category, which has their third and final Moto on Saturday.
In Vital's 2025 250 Silly Season roundup video with ML a couple of months ago, he mentioned that Adams' situation is a bit unclear, but I would be stunned if he isn't a pro by the time we hit the '25 Pro Motocross season. He'd have nothing left to prove in the amateur ranks by that point, and they'd still have the option to run him through SX Futures again if the teams feel that's for the best. It's also important to remember that Adams will only turn 17 next March; there is no need to rush anything here if you're Payton and Co.
250 SMX Playoff Bubble Check-In
There aren't many surprises over who the top 20 SMX riders will likely be in the 250 class. Still, one of the more notable under-the-radar late-season storylines will be Garrett Marchbanks, who's joining Pro Circuit Kawasaki a bit earlier than anticipated. Despite not taking a start in the class since St. Louis Supercross, he sits just four points out of a guaranteed bid into all three SMX rounds in the class. The likely loser in this is Dilan Schwartz of BarX Suzuki, who's the next guy in line but also 27 points back of 19th-place Joey Savatgy in the combined standings. I have a hard time seeing him keep a four-point gap over six Motos, but we'll have to see how the AMA/Feld treats injured riders this year. Last year it was a bit unclear going into last year, but they didn't bump riders up in the standings; they just added extra qualifying spots into the LCQs.
Looking back at the RacerX Injury Report prior to Washougal, 250 West Supercross Champion R.J Hampshire, Coty Schock, and Nate Thrasher are all expected to be back at some point in these next few weeks. Barring any other injury news, all riders in the 250-class top 20 would be good to go. That said, there are only two healthy 250 riders in LCQ contention besides Marchbanks, Talon Hawkins, and Jett Reynolds. Granted, that number will become three, potentially as soon as next weekend, assuming Mark Fineis can gain seven total points, leaving about a half dozen spots for backups. A sneaky name to watch for (assuming he's back at Unadilla) is Guillem Farres, who ran just two Supercross rounds this year but 27 total points. We've seen what the young Spaniard is capable of outdoors, and I don't think it'd be a stretch to see him gain upwards of 30 points across three weekends if he can make all three Nationals.
There are not a ton of surprises at the top as Charlotte awaits. Expect Haiden Deegan to clinch the one seed and 25 points to start with, most likely after Budds Creek. Behind him, seven points separate Tom Vialle and Levi Kitchen for the second seed. Then, we'll most likely have Jo Shimoda at the four and Chance Hymas at the five. The extra points may seem insignificant, but remember, Deegan won last year's title by just five points over Shimoda. Anything can happen over those three weeks.
450 SMX Playoff Check-In
While Chase Sexton continues to march towards his second straight one-seed in SMX, it's worth mentioning that Jett Lawrence, the fight for the two seed with Jason Anderson and Hunter Lawrence, who aren't exactly on the greatest terms, is going to be a fun battle within the battle to close out this outdoor tilt. Both riders, along with Justin Cooper, will almost certainly pass Lawrence by the Budds Creek at the absolute latest, while Aaron Ples, who's 82 points back, also has a chance as well. Granted, with Tomac, Roczen, and Webb all likely back imminently, that will almost certainly dampen his chances of passing him.
Back to the reigning Champion, he did win last year despite a brutal opener at ZMax Dragway as the three seed, but potentially starting as the six seed against a red-hot Sexton, plus your brother, Tomac, Roczen, Webb, Anderson, and Cooper, won't be easy. It'll be interesting to see how he'll be physically once we get to timed practice in Charlotte, but even coming off the thumb injury, I'm not sure I'd want to bet against him.
Moving back to the top 20 cutoff, things get REALLY interesting. Seven (7) points separate seeds 16-21 with six (6) Motos left. This means one of Phil Nicoletti, Harri Kullas, Chiz, Dean Wilson, Grant Harlan, or Marshal Weltin must race their way through the LCQ to make the main SMX shows. Selfishly, I hope that gap tightens up even more going into the final Moto at Ironman. 2017 East Rutherford LCQ on steroids would be ideal (as a viewer. You couldn't pay me to be a rider or crew guy in that spot).
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