Welcome to year six of "This is the best 450 Supercross class in the history of the sport," and it being a 100 percent valid claim. Eli Tomac is as close to 100 percent as he's been post Achilles tear, Jorge Prado is a full-time AMA rider now, and both Lawrence brothers are coming off objectively great 2024s, and that's not even mentioning another 10 riders. It's a great time to be a fan, but interesting times with a ton of legends getting closer to the end of their careers, a pair of European manufacturers inching closer to setting up American 450 programs, and a new batch of 250 class stars ready to ascend to 450 stardom in the coming years. But with about 100 storylines going into A1, here's four that stand out above the rest.
Be sure to check out our 250 West Class Preview (published prior to Austin Forkner switching coasts due to Jalek Swoll's Achilles injury).
El Conquistador
It's a whole new look, bike, and even number for reigning two-time FIM World Motocross Champion Jorge Prado in 2025. Inheriting the No. 70 thanks to those early season Supercross races a year ago, switching from GasGas to Kawasaki, and even ditching Thor for Fox gear.
The most interesting story in the sport is how the Spaniard performs not just in Supercross but throughout 2025. Prado suffered a preseason injury, which was widely reported in real time but confirmed by himself and people in his circle around the Media Day period. American Moto fans got to know a bit of this last year, but his starts are electric; his race pacing/stamina improved leaps in bounds in the last couple of years from where it was from 2020-2022, and for '24 being his first real run at Supercross, he showed you enough to feel good about this year.
While world-class in the speed department, his lack of indoor experience means he's probably not going to contend for wins this year (at least right away. Also; in before this ages terribly). However, any progress he can make as a Supercross rider this year will be a welcome development. In any case, I expect to see the best out of the No. 70 KX450 in summertime.
Bobby Regan has an Active Infinite Money Glitch
By our count, Star Yamaha is entering 2024 with seven contracted 250 riders and four full-time 450 guys in Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb, Justin Cooper, and Christian Craig. I don't know how he finds the cash, even by Bobby Regan's standards. But hey, his money, not mine. The Craig move was a bit of a surprise given the three-rider structure they had last year, but from a long-term standpoint, it is one that I'm a big fan of. He gets the opportunity to run at least one more full year on elite equipment and, assumingly, becomes a test rider and valuable resource for an ever-growing and changing 250 roster whenever he wants to hang it up. It doesn't sound like he'll be at the gate Saturday, but he'll surely be back sooner than later once his knee gets right.
How Justin Cooper takes that next step is another interesting storyline, and on any other team, it might be the key storyline. Unfortunately, he has two former multi-time champions as running mates coming off of interesting 2024s who outrank him here. Cooper Webb always found his way into these title fights and is probably still the last guy anyone in this field would want to play defense against in that final month of the season, Jett Lawrence included. Pure speed has never been his game, but do not always give this guy a reason to win. He's still elite and can win a third title this year.
This is not a hot take at this point, but I believe that if Eli Tomac wins a third Supercross Championship, he'll be 100% done at the end of the year (whether that means SMX or WSX is TBD). He already alluded in a sit down with Jason Thomas that he probably already is if Denver '23 doesn't happen, and if it doesn't happen this year, I don't think it will happen at all. The Achilles injury appears to be fully in the rearview, and he, along with Ken Roczen, has the benefit of having some recent live race reps, thanks to WSX. How Tomac runs at A1 or even just that first month will tell the story, but I believe he has a real shot this year, much like his other single-digit number teammate.
The Silly Season to End All Silly Seasons
2025 is another one of those massive contract years in the world of SMX, with several high-profile riders likely in the process of securing new deals as we speak. Chase Sexton is probably the most notable, although, according to Michael Lindsay of Vital, he has an option for 2026 (ditto for Webb and Star). Last year, it was no secret that the former SX/current MX Champion was chasing the indoor setup with things not being to his liking close to all year, not unlike Cooper Webb in his last days with the team.
My gut says that due to those reasons, as well as the KTM group's declining financial situation and Tom Vialle potentially being forced out of the 250 class at year's end, we will likely see Sexton elsewhere in 2026. Now, where would make sense for Sexton? Kawasaki makes sense when you consider Jason Anderson's deal is expiring as well, but they aren't exactly known for accommodating bike changes, as demonstrated at the end of their Tomac run with the suspension choice. The other two interesting options for both of these riders would be Triumph and Ducati, assuming there are no setbacks on their 450 programs for next year, but who knows if Sexton wants to spend prime years on an unproven squad.
What about Star Yamaha? I've seen that floated around even on Vurb, and while I think Bobby Regan is enough of a psycho to potentially run out Sexton, Webb, and Deegan next year, that would be a ton of money invested into three No. 1 riders. More of a gut feeling, but I'd lean Star, but not a lock by any means.
As for Anderson, should he leave Kawasaki, Triumph would've been the easiest layup in history because of the Bobby Hewitt relationship. However, he was let go, and former Star Yamaha manager Jeremy Coker took his place. I'd chalk up the last two years for El Hombre to bad luck because he's looked really good at times after his scorching hot 2022, so while I'd lean toward sticking around on a KX, he could end up just about anywhere, and I wouldn't be shocked. Put Barcia in that same boat as well, with the newly re-hashed Rockstar GasGas squad.
How Ken Roczen continues to get Championship-level performances out of a nearly decade-old Suzuki platform is nothing short of astonishing. But for these two new manufacturers (Triumph and Ducati), I could think of many worse ways to sell bikes than by making Ken Roczen the face of your brand. Put Malcolm Stewart and Justin Barcia in this conversation, too, whose deals with Husqvarna and GasGas expire at year's end. Those three feel like perfect candidates to lead those new 450 factory efforts in 2026. That said, we have some time before things get hammered down, and this has the chance to be a silly season for the ages.
Double Down
Even well after the fact, I don't think it's settled in just how insane what Jett Lawrence did in September and October of last year was, given his summer injuries. a UCL injury isn't exactly anything to scoff at, and he somehow managed to nearly sweep SMX and then go 1-2 at Des Nations, all in the span of five weeks. There's certainly a part of me that hopes guys can make up the ground on him, but at some point, I hope people can appreciate just how insane what Jett has done before he even turns 21.
I can't say Lawrence is anything other than the clear favorite, but that doesn't mean he's an outright lock. We saw him struggle in the mud in San Francisco for a ninth that evening, and this is a sport where you can simply be a victim of circumstances. Take Main No. 3 at St Louis last year, for example, where Justin Barcia incidentally t-boned him. Ultimately, while he's the favorite (as well as my own pick), let's not rush to crown him should he look like dynamite on Saturday night. It's a long season, and this is still an elite field.
450 Points Top 5 Prediction: 1st) No. 1 Jett Lawrence, 2nd) No. 3 Eli Tomac, 3rd) No. 2 Cooper Webb, 4th) No. 4 Chase Sexton, 5th) No. 94 Ken Roczen
Main Image via Honda HRC
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