Everett Davison and Jack Gaffney contributed to this article.
This week, the NASCAR circuit heads to the Lone Star State for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. It is the first of six road course races on the schedule this season, and this will be the fifth rendition of the event, though this year's race will be held on a shorter layout of the track that cuts out turns 7-11 of the main track and most of the long back straight.
The Track
Circuit of the Americas opened in 2012 and has hosted the United States Grand Prix every year since, except for 2020. NASCAR made their first foray to the track in 2021; since then, it has been a fan favorite.
This year, however, due to the winding nature of the first part of the track and the insanely long back straight, neither of which bode particularly well for the current generation of stock car racing, a different layout will be used that shortens the track from 3.4 miles to 2.4 miles, thus lengthening the race from 68 laps to 95.
Past Winners
Nobody has repeated in the four races so far, with the winners being Chase Elliott (2021), Ross Chastain (2022), Tyler Reddick (2023), and William Byron (2024). However, the four Xfinity series races held at the track were won by drivers in the field this week, with Kyle Busch (2021), A.J. Allmendinger (2022, 2023), and Kyle Larson (2024) emerging victorious.
On top of the seven winners at the track, there are nine other drivers in the field who have won road course races in the Cup Series: Alex Bowman, Michael McDowell, Shane van Gisbergen, Daniel Suarez, Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell. That list doesn't include solid road course racers like Ty Gibbs and Austin Cindric, who have both shown good speed in this style of racing in the past without finding Victory Lane.
All listed odds were pre-qualifying.
Davison's Picks
Favorite: Shane van Gisbergen (+450 DraftKings)
In the first two races of van Gisbergen's rookie season in the Cup Series, he hasn't fared too well, with a 33rd-place finish at Daytona followed up with a 23rd-place finish at Atlanta. However, he was taken out in crashes that weren't his doing both times, and at Atlanta, he was in the main pack until the end of the race, acquainting himself well with superspeedway racing. As with most things, the more experience he gets, the better he will be with that type of racing.
One place where he doesn't lack experience is on-the-road courses. He won his first ever Cup Series race at Chicago in 2023, and since then, he has three top-10s in five races on road courses and was in the running before being taken out at Chicago last year. Shane van Gisbergen is the rightful favorite this week, and if he can be there at the end, he knows how to win these races.
Favorite: Austin Cindric (+2200 DraftKings)
Cindric started on the Road to Indy ladder, and he also has run in sports cars and rallycross, so his pedigree on tracks like these extends well before his NASCAR days. He finished 25th here in his first attempt in 2021, but he qualified third and ran up front all day, even leading four laps in the process, before spinning out of the top-10 a few laps before the caution was called that would eventually end the race. Since then, he has two top-10s and an 18th-place finish last year, which came after he had been competitive but fell away late.
If Cindric is in contention late on Sunday, he knows how to win, and he'll be hungry after his first two races of the year, where he arguably had the fastest car both times but was involved in late wrecks. Watch out for Cindric to take the third win of his career on Sunday.
Sleeper: Daniel Suarez (+3500 DraftKings)
Suarez won at Sonoma in 2022 for his first career win, and while he's never finished in the top-20 at COTA, he has been competitive, and he'll be looking for a good run after two poor finishes the past two weeks, especially compared to how he ran in both races. His last top-10 on a road course was a third-place finish at Indianapolis in 2023, but before that, he had a streak of three top-fives in four road course races that started with his win at Sonoma.
All of that might seem like reasons to stay away from Suarez this week, but simply put, he is due for a good run. Last year, he finished horribly at the road courses, but he had speed at Watkins Glen, Chicago, Sonoma, and COTA before his luck ran out. If Suarez can have the speed he had last year and combine that with any luck, he can be in contention at the end, and if he is, nobody is more dangerous than a man driving for his livelihood.
Top 10: Chris Buescher (+100 DraftKings)
Buescher won at Watkins Glen last year and has back-to-back eighth-place finishes at COTA in the past two years. Before last year's win, which was the sixth of his career, he was known as a solid road course racer, but he wasn't considered one of the best in the series. However, he has sneakily been among the best for several years, with three straight top-four finishes at Sonoma in the last three years and three top-10s at the Charlotte Roval in the last four years.
Simply put, Buescher knows how to keep his nose clean on the road courses. He has never failed to finish a road course race in his career, and more often than not, he has finished in the top-20. That includes times when he drove for lower-tier teams like mid-2010s Front Row and JTG Daugherty. Since he joined Roush, Buescher has 17 top-10s in 26 road course races.
For Buescher to have top-10 odds as low as they are is insane. For someone to not put a bet on him, they'd have to be crazier.
Gaffney's Picks
Favorite: Connor Zilisch (+750 DraftKings)
The mere fact that Connor Zilisch has the second-best odds to win his NASCAR Cup Series debut at 18.5 years old is both downright preposterous and warranted. He downright dominated his Xfinity Series debut last year at the Glen, in a field that included SVG, William Byron, A.J. Allendinger, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, and Joey Logano, and given the fact that he has a LMP2 24 Hours of Daytona win under his belt already, I don't think the lights will be too bright for him here when he starts in the teens.
Favorite: Tyler Reddick (+800 DraftKings)
There hasn't been a better road course racer in the Cup Series since the launch of the Gen7 car than Reddick, who won one of his three road course outings since ‘22 right at COTA all of two years ago. What also makes him a worthwhile bet is that he's never qualified or finished outside of the top five in his three trips to Austin, and I have no reason to believe he won't be right in the mix as soon as they drop the green flag this Sunday.
Sleeper: Michael McDowell (+3500 DraftKings)
Last year at COTA was a trip to forget for the former Daytona 500 winner, but he's as good a true longshot pick as you'll find in this field. Starting 16th may not seem great, but this is the first time McDowell has qualified inside the top 20 at COTA in five starts, and he has the ability to methodically pick guys off.
Top 10: Shane Van Gisbergen (-500 DraftKings)
Self-explanatory. Get ready to learn God Defend New Zealand buddy.
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