The start of the NASCAR season is here, and with it comes the season's most important race. The Daytona 500 is the one race that every driver wants to win, and most drivers have said they would trade a championship for a win in the Great American Race. With the Xfinity and Truck Series races done, we can look forward to today's action.
The Track
Daytona International Speedway has hosted the Daytona 500 every year since its opening in 1959, and it has become the most prestigious race on the NASCAR schedule. The 2.5-mile tri-oval is one of the three drafting tracks on the schedule, along with Atlanta and Talladega, and it is known for throwing up some upset winners, including Michael McDowell, Trevor Bayne, and Derrick Cope.
Additionally, the style of racing seen at Daytona leads to massive chain-reaction wrecks, which have colloquially become known as “The Big One.” The only question is when it will happen, not if it will. Last year, for example, there was a 23-car wreck with nine laps left in the race, which started when Alex Bowman pushed eventual winner William Byron and turned him into the right-rear of Brad Keselowski, sending Keselowski spinning in front of the pack.
Past Winners
There are eight former winners in the field this year: Byron (2024), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2023), Austin Cindric (2022), McDowell (2021), Denny Hamlin (2016, 2019, 2020), Austin Dillon (2018), Joey Logano (2015), and Jimmie Johnson (2006, 2013). The most recent winners who aren't in the race this year are Kurt Busch (2017), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2004, 2014), Matt Kenseth (2009, 2012), and Bayne (2011).
On top of the eight drivers in the field who have won the race in the past, 11 other drivers in the field have won a drafting-style race: Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Justin Haley, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones, Tyler Reddick, and Daniel Suarez. Any of the 19 drivers that have won these styles of races could win this race, but so could anyone else; nine drivers have had their first win in the Great American Race, including McDowell and Cindric, who are competing for their second wins in the race this year.
Qualifying and The Duels
The Daytona 500 has a unique qualifying format, where each driver takes one lap on Wednesday, which sets the lineups for the Duels on Thursday. The first duel involves any driver who finished Wednesday's qualifying in an odd position, and it sets the order of the inside row, while the second duel does the same for the outside row. Only the front row of the race is set by the single-car qualifying runs; the Duel winners start third and fourth in the race, respectively.
Additionally, with 45 drivers vying for 41 starting spots, the five open cars who made the race were decided by taking the top two open cars in single-car qualifying and the top non-exempt open car in each Duel; the fifth open spot was taken by Indycar star Helio Castroneves, who was guaranteed to be in the race after NASCAR instituted the Open Exemption Provisional, starting this year.
Chase Briscoe and Cindric qualified on the front row for the Daytona 500 on Wednesday, while Wallace and Cindric won each of the Duels (Erik Jones will start fourth after finishing second in the second Duel). Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson locked themselves into the race during single-car qualifying on Wednesday, while Justin Allgaier and Corey Lajoie locked themselves into the race during the Duels on Thursday. That left JJ Yeley, Anthony Alfredo, Chandler Smith, and BJ McLeod on the outside looking in for the race on Sunday.
Davison's Picks
Each week, I'll select two favorites and one sleeper to win the race and a driver to finish in the top 10. Without further ado, here's my picks for this week.
Favorite: Brad Keselowski (+1300 DraftKings)
Keselowski has won six times in his career at Talladega, and he has won the summer race at Daytona once, so he knows his way around drafting tracks. However, he has only finished in the top 10 in the Daytona 500 three times, with a third place in 2014, a fourth place in 2013, and a ninth place in 2022, being the highlights of a crash-filled and snake-bitten history in the race. He has crashed out of contending positions several times, with the most heartbreaking coming in 2021, when he had a run on teammate Joey Logano going into turn three on the final lap, and Logano threw a late block, ending with both Penske drivers in the wall and Michael McDowell, the third place car, getting through for the win.
Keselowski will be starting from the rear of the field in a backup car, but if the speed he showed in his Duel on Thursday can carry over to the backup, he'll have no problem getting to the front. The only question will be whether his horrible luck will continue or if he will finally have something go his way.
Favorite: Austin Cindric (+1800 DraftKings)
Cindric is the 2022 winner of the Daytona 500, and this will be his fifth entry into the event. Outside of his win in 2022, however, he has failed to finish in the top 10 in his other three attempts. In 2021, he entered a fourth Penske car and was in the lead pack on the last lap, but he was caught up in the aforementioned crash with Logano and Keselowski. In 2023, he was caught up in The Big One with two laps to go while running in the top 10, and in 2024, he was in third and had a run on race leader William Byron coming to the white flag before Ross Chastain, who was on his outside and had another massive run, got blocked by Byron into Cindric and sent both spinning into the tri-oval.
Every time Cindric has raced in the Daytona 500, he's been in contention for the win late. Couple that with a win in his Duel and the fact that he qualified on the outside of the front row, and Cindric might have the best car in the garage this week. If Cindric can keep out of trouble, he will have a shot late, and he should have the car to compete.
Sleeper: Erik Jones (+3500 DraftKings)
Jones has won at Daytona before, as he won the 2018 Coke Zero 400 while he was driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, and he won the 2020 Clash (albeit with a car that was more fit for a junkyard than Victory Lane). However, he has only finished the Daytona 500 three times, though one of those was last year, when he finished eighth. He finished second in his Duel on Thursday, though if NASCAR had held the caution flag for another 100 feet, he would have taken the win.
Jones is very good at these plate tracks, and if he can find himself in contention at the end, he knows what it takes to win. He seems to have a good car this week, and if he can keep it clean, he'll be there at the end.
Top 10: AJ Allmendinger (+260 DraftKings)
This is Allmendinger's 12th Daytona 500, and he has never failed to finish the race. In his last four attempts at the race, he has finished in the top 10: third in 2017, 10th in 2018, and sixth in the last two years. He is known as a road course ace, but he has also proven to be great at missing accidents.
If Allmendinger can keep out of trouble, which he has a knack for doing, he can end up scoring a fifth-straight top 10 in the Great American Race. The only question after that will be whether he has a car good enough to win.
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