It all comes down to this. The 2024 PGA Tour season is set to conclude at East Lake Golf Club with the Tour Championship. Of the 70 golfers who began the FedEx Cup Playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, only 30 players advanced to the third and final event. With a $25 million purse on the line, world number one Scottie Scheffler will head into the weekend, holding a two-stroke lead for the third year. Yet to win a FedEx Cup title, the Dallas native was tracked down by Viktor Hovland in 2023. Behind him, Xander Schauffele will start two shots off the lead. In 2017, the reigning U.S. Open and Open Championship winner finished in the top three four times at East Lake.
Chris Gallagher, Everett Davidson, and Charlie Okray contributed to this article.
The Course
A Donald Ross design, East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904. It has hosted the Tour Championship every season since the FedEx Cup playoffs were introduced in 2007. Formerly a par 70, the course is now laid out as a par 71, measuring over 7,300 yards from the back tees after undergoing extensive renovations this year. Nonetheless, the venue still features narrow fairways, difficult water hazards, and fast Bermudagrass greens. Widely known as a risk-reward course, East Lake has multiple holes that should provide no shortage of theatre all weekend long. This includes the par 3 ninth hole, which has been lengthened to 250 plus yards off the tee while playing over water.
The Field
This week, the PGA Tour will have its smallest field out of all points-paying events this season, as the final event of the FedexCup Playoffs only has 30 players in the field. The top 30 players include some of the best players in the world as it currently stands, with all of the top 15 in the OWGR except for LIV Tour players Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm in attendance. Only one player who is playing this week is outside the top 50 in the OWGR, and that is Tom Hoge, who is ranked 59th in the OWGR but 27th in the FedexCup after having a quietly solid season. Given this week's tournament format, those who have been better throughout the season will have an easier time winning, which was the entire point of the FedEx Cup when it was created in 2007. Regardless, this week's winner of both the Tour Championship and FedexCup will be a deserving one, and they will have to battle against 29 of the best players in the world to get there.
Chris' Tour Championship Picks
Outright: Keegan Bradley
A winner at the BWM Championship a week ago, Bradley carded a final round 70 to edge out Ludvig Aberg, Adam Scott, and Sam Burns by one stroke. Now up to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, the Vermont native will start only four strokes behind Scheffler when he tees off on Thursday. With plenty of experience in his 16th year on Tour, the 38-year-old also finished T2 at The Sony Open in Hawaii and the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. Furthermore, he also grabbed a top-ten finish at East Lake in 2023. Coming off an emotional week could take a toll on Bradley, but regardless, look for him to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon.
Outright: Colin Morikawa
Searching for his first win since the 2023 Zozo Championship, Morikawa has had a few close calls this season. A June runner-up at The Memorial Tournament, the Los Angeles native also placed T4 at The Genesis Scottish Open. He also grabbed a T3 at The Masters Tournament and a T14 at The U.S. Open. With a good course history at East Lake, the 27-year-old placed T6 at the event a year ago on the heels of an opening round 61. Deadly accurate both off the tee and on his approach play, Morikawa ranks 11th on Tour in driving accuracy (70.1). Set to start six strokes off the lead, he offers excellent value at 30/1 odds.
Outright: Sam Burns
Following a slow start to his 2024 season, Burns heads into East Lake red hot. The 28-year-old has racked up four top-ten finishes in his last six starts, including a T9 at The U.S. Open, T12 at The 3M Open, and T5 at The FedEx St. Jude. He was also runner-up at The BMW Championship a week ago on the heels of a Sunday 65. The LSU product picked up a whopping eight strokes on the field. One of the best putters in golf, Burns ranks 11th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting (0.542) and dazzled on the Bermudagrass greens in Colorado. Set to start at four under par alongside Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, and Patrick Cantlay, bet on Burns to rack up a career-defining win.
Top-10: Viktor Hovland
Amid an up-and-down 2024 season, Hovland missed the cut at both The U.S. Open and The Open Championship. However, the 26-year-old reminded the golfing world of his star power at The FedEx St. Jude Championship. He carded three straight rounds in the 60s, including a Friday afternoon 63 to finish runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama. The Norwegian native picked up five strokes on the field on his approach play for the second time in his last three starts. Meanwhile, Hovland also gained shots with his putter for the first time since The Genesis Scottish Open. While he likely will not be able to catch, Scheffler is starting ten strokes behind him, and Hovland should come out of the gates hot in Atlanta. Grab him for a top-ten finish at (+120) odds.
Head-to-Head: Byeong-Hun An over Akshay Bhatia
An has grabbed two top-15 finishes in his last three starts. This includes a T13 at The BMW Championship in which he picked up strokes both off the tee and on his approach play. Possessing the game to score well at the re-designed East Lake, the 32-year-old ranks fifth on Tour in driving distance (316.3). On the flip side, Bhatia has struggled during the second half of the season following his electrifying win at The Valero Texas Open. The Los Angeles native missed the cut at both The Open Championship and The Wyndham Championship. Moreover, he stumbled to a 45th-place finish at the BMW Championship. With both players making their Tour Championship debuts, take An to get the better of this matchup.
Charlie's Tour Championship Picks
Outright: Scottie Scheffler
It'll be the same story this week as it's been all year, and what will come down to deciding if Scheffler leaves East Lake victorious - the putter. Scottie has world-class driving and ball striking. It's what has carried him to 7 wins this year - one being a second Green Jacket and the other a gold medal in Paris. He's taken almost every signature event, and at this point, anything outside of a top 5 finish feels like a disappointment. One thing that typically helps boost the putting stats is sticking every approach inside 10 feet. We have seen him enter "video game mode" enough times for me to put complete confidence in the big fella this weekend.
Scheffler has seemed a tad annoyed during this week's pressers with all of the debates over who has had the better year between him and Schauffele, so a little added motivation to put that debate to rest doesn't hurt. He'll start the tournament in the lead at -10, two strokes ahead of Schauffele. It's his third consecutive year starting with the lead, and he's failed to come out with a victory in back-to-back starts. I've foolishly faded him in all the tournaments he's won this year, so I can't afford to repeat the same mistake. If what they say is true about "third time being the charm,", I'm not walking away without a Scottie bet. You can snag him on DraftKings right now at +115.
Outright: Rory McIlroy
U.S. Open collapse aside, McIlroy has put together a very respectable year. Leaving any given season without a major championship is a loss for Rory at this stage in his career, and he'll have to wait until 2025 to get another crack at one. However, McIlroy has greatly advocated the Tour Championship and how it's the closest thing to a "Fifth Major." He's won it three times (2016, 2019, 2022) so far, and it's well within the realm of possibility he does it again this weekend. In 19' and 22', he started the tournament with multiple strokes off the lead, so don't let his starting position at -4 (T6) discourage you. Rory is capable of chasing down anyone when he's gaining strokes with the driver, something he's been doing all season. Given his ability and solid track record with the course, I love McIlroy this weekend at +1800.
Outright: Sungjae Im
Sungjae has made the Tour Championship every year since joining the PGA Tour in 2019. He hasn't been able to catch a win so far this season, but he's been impressive all year and comes into this weekend in good form. Sungjae has 7 top 10s on the year and finished just outside of the top 10 at last weekend's BMW Championship. He impressively shot 67 or better all 4 rounds back in 2022, finishing runner-up that year to Rory McIlroy. He's proven he can catch fire at East Lake, so if you want a longshot to bet on this weekend, don't stray away from the South Korean. Im's odds stand at +8000 to win and +140 to finish inside the top 10.
Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood
It will take a lot of heavy lifting from Fleetwood this weekend to get a win, as he will start at just -1 (T21), nine strokes off the lead. Since missing the cut at this year's Open, Tommy has bounced back nicely with a silver medal at the Olympics and a top 5 last weekend. His accuracy off the tee, paired with some good putting performances the past few times he's teed it up, leads me to believe he can still make a run this weekend. At last year's Tour Championship, he posted a 65 and 66 on the weekend. He'll need to find those scores in all four rounds if he wants a chance to win, so I prefer his top 10 odds at +160.
Head-To-Head: Collin Morikawa over Wyndham Clark
Morikawa and Clark will both start the tournament at -4 (T6). People forgot about Clark midway into this season when he hit a major wall following his second-place finish at The Players. He's still put together a pretty solid year but failed to make the cut at 3 of the 4 major tournaments (yikes). Believe it or not, Clark has played well enough to accumulate enough FedEx Cup points to put him in contention this weekend. He took 7th and 13th in his last two starts throughout these FedEx Cup Playoffs, which has certainly helped, but the eye test all year has me fading Clark. Instead, give me Collin Morikawa to beat him outright at -135. Morikawa is the favorite in this matchup, and he absolutely should be. He's got 7 top-10 finishes, and it feels like he's close to getting another win soon.
Everett's Tour Championship Picks
Outright: Xander Schauffele
Last year, Scottie Scheffler entered the Tour Championship at first in the standings, but he only shot 1-under for the week, while Viktor Hovland, who entered at second coming off of a win in the BMW Championship, shot 19-under for the week and won. However, given the staged start, another player shot 19-under for the four rounds, but because he started at 3-under, he ended up five shots behind Hovland; his name was Xander Schauffele. Schauffele is making his eighth appearance in the event this year, and he has never finished worse than T7, with a win in his first appearance in 2017 and three second-place finishes to boot. Schauffele clearly likes East Lake, and given that there is only going to be one player starting the week ahead of him, it might be time for him to claim his first FedexCup title.
Outright: Ludvig Aberg
Aberg enters this week at fifth in the FedexCup Standings and will start this week at 5-under, five shots behind Scheffler. However, he hasn't won yet this season, and he would be looking to become the third player to win the Tour Championship after not winning any events all season beforehand (Bill Haas in 2011 and Tiger Woods in 2018 are the two who have done it), and he is also looking to become the fourth player to win the Tour Championship in their debut at the event (Haas in 2011, Henrik Stenson in 2013, and Schauffele in 2017 are the three). Aberg has had a great season, and despite not having a victory, he has three runner-up finishes, including last week at the BMW Championship, where he finished one shot behind winner Keegan Bradley. Aberg is in good form, and his game suits East Lake, so he should have a chance to contend this weekend. If he does win, he'll become the first Swede to win the event since Stenson.
Outright: Billy Horschel
Horschel won here in 2014, capping off a remarkable two-week run with a FedexCup victory. Additionally, his game seems to suit East Lake, and he has had his best season in a while this year, with his first victory in two years and his best-ever finish in a major with a T2 finish at The Open in July. His history here is pretty good, as well, though he did finish outside the top 20 in 2020 and 2022; he has finished in the top 10 in his other four appearances, with a solo second in 2018, capping off another impressive season and showing that his win in 2014 wasn't necessarily a fluke. Horschel starts at 1-under this week, so he will need to get hot if he plans to contend, but he has shown in the past that he likes this course, and it likes him back. Don't be surprised if he is in contention come Sunday, and if he is, he will have a chance to cap off his best season since at least 2014, if not ever as a pro.
Top 10: Adam Scott
Scott has been quietly putting together a good season. Over the last month and change, he has almost broken a four-year winless drought twice, with a solo second at the Scottish Open last month and a T2 finish last week, where he led by a significant margin going into the weekend before gradually falling off. Scott is still a very good player, even at 44 years of age, and while he might not be the same player who was World No. 1 for 11 weeks in 2014 or who almost won four majors in a six-event span (2012 Open-2013 PGA), he is still ranked in the top-25 in the OWGR and can seemingly still show up on a weekly basis. Scott will start this week at 3-under, but he has won here before (albeit in 2006) and has a good history here, even outside of the win. He has six top-10s in 12 starts, although he is playing in the event for only the second time since 2019 when he finished solo-sixth (he finished solo-25th in 2022). If Scott can carry his momentum from the last month into this week and put together four solid rounds, he should be able to claim another top-10 finish in this event.
Head-to-Head: Aaron Rai over Justin Thomas
Rai has had his best season as a professional this year, winning his first PGA Tour event four years after his previous worldwide victory, which was at the 2020 Scottish Open. Additionally, over the last few months, he has been arguably a top-15 player in the world, coinciding with his current ranking of 24th in the OWGR. Rai is the first prominent player on the PGA Tour to wear two gloves since Tommy Gainey, and as a result, he has gained somewhat of a cult following. Meanwhile, Thomas has been slumping, with just one top-5 finish since May. Thomas comes in 30th, so he has nowhere to go but up, but he back-doored his way into the Tour Championship, as he originally thought he would be on the outside looking in after finishing his round last week, but Brian Harman double-bogeyed the final hole and finished in 31st in the standings, promoting Thomas into the field. Given their relative form coming in and the fact that Rai has had success on similar courses recently, Rai should finish above Thomas come Sunday.
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